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| Energy & Fuels

World Bank Warns of Biggest Energy Price Surge Since 2022 on Middle East War

The World Bank forecasts global commodity prices will rise 16% in 2026, the first annual increase since 2022, as the Middle East conflict drives energy prices up 24% and pushes fertilizer, aluminum and precious metals toward record highs. Agriculture is the sole commodity group expected to fall, as a slump in beverage prices offsets a modest rise in food costs.

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Priya Raghavan
Energy Markets Analyst
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| Trade Policy & Macro

Iran War Disrupts Global Commodities, World Bank Warns of Inflation Shock

A World Bank report shows the war in Iran driving a projected 24% jump in energy prices this year and pushing fertiliser, aluminium, copper and tin toward multi-year or record highs as Strait of Hormuz closures disrupt seaborne trade. The bank warns risks remain tilted toward even higher prices, while separate reports point to rising resin costs and China's first factory-gate price increase in three years.

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Yusuf Demir
Trade Policy Analyst
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| Trade Policy & Macro

Trump Raises Global Tariff to 15% After Supreme Court Voids IEEPA Levies

President Trump said the new baseline US tariff on imports will be 15%, not the 10% announced a day earlier, after the Supreme Court struck down his prior global tariffs. The move, using a rarely-invoked 1974 trade law, creates uncertainty for the UK, Australia, EU and other partners that had negotiated lower rates.

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Eleanor Hayes
Head of Trade Policy Research
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| Trade Policy & Macro

Trump Raises Global US Tariff Rate to 15% After Supreme Court Setback

President Trump said the US will raise its new global tariff to 15% from 10%, a day after the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that his use of emergency powers to impose earlier tariffs was unconstitutional. The new rate, set under a different legal authority, is lower than many of last year's country-specific duties but higher for some trading partners, while Brussels says the impact on the EU economy will be limited.

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Eleanor Hayes
Head of Trade Policy Research
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| Food & Beverages

Brazil Coffee Harvest Delays Fuel Fresh Jump in US Coffee Prices

Delays in Brazil's coffee harvest are being linked to a renewed rise in US coffee prices, even as reports point to easing supply conditions elsewhere in the global market. Brazil's position as the world's largest coffee producer means slower-than-expected harvesting there is rippling through pricing despite looser supply pressure in other regions.

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Isabella Romano
Senior Food & Beverage Trade Analyst
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| Energy & Fuels

Hormuz Tanker Attacks Trigger US Sanctions Move, Oil Price Surge

Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, including a Qatari LNG carrier, prompted new US strikes on Iran and the revocation of a sanctions waiver on Iranian oil sales. Brent crude jumped as much as 6% intraday, tankers made U-turns, and the IMO urged ships to avoid the waterway.

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Priya Raghavan
Energy Markets Analyst
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