Pastry market in CIS

Earlier Report Observations

The pastry market in CIS expanded from 822 thousand tons in 2018 to 880 thousand tons in 2019. This growth was driven by increasing demand from single-person households who preferred ready-made 'quick' pastries over home baking, as well as the launch of new mini-formats and delivery services that catered to this trend.

The market volume declined to 820.5 thousand tons in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused restrictions on movement and raised raw material prices, leading to lower production. Despite the opening of new bakeries in St. Petersburg and the emergence of new segments like mixed pastry boxes and home delivery in 2021, the market continued to contract to 733.9 thousand tons, indicating persistent challenges post-pandemic.

From 2022 to 2023, the market size fell further to 652.8 thousand tons and then to 547.4 thousand tons. This was primarily due to the exit of international brands like Haribo and Mondelez from the Russian market, restrictions on imported raw materials, and rising costs driven by sanctions and currency fluctuations. In 2024, the market continued to evolve with the spread of mini-bakeries and the discussion of new food labeling regulations.

Production pastry in CIS

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of pastry, 2017-2020

World map of production of pastry, 2017-2020

Pastry production in the CIS saw a decline after two years of growth. In 2020, output reached 715.7 K t, down 7.7% from the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production increased by 5.4%, averaging 1.8% per year. The peak was recorded in 2019 at 775.8 K t, with the largest annual increase of 9.9% also occurring that year.

Annual dynamics of production in CIS in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Following a two-year uptrend, pastry production in the CIS experienced a downturn. In 2020, the value of pastry output was 4 780 M $ US, a 14.6% decrease compared to 2019. The highest value was observed in 2019 at 5 595 M $ US, which also saw the largest annual increase of 8.4%.

Annual dynamics of production in CIS in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports pastry from CIS

Exports in kind, K t

Pastry exports from the CIS have risen for the third year in a row. In 2020, exports totaled 39.0 K t, showing a strong year-on-year growth of 14.8%. From 2017 to 2020, exports increased by 43.3%, with an average annual rate of 12.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from CIS in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Between 2017 and 2020, the export structure in kind was highly diversified. China accounted for 4.2% of exports, Ukraine for 3.8%, and Georgia for 3.0%, together making up only 11.0% of total flows. The remaining 89.0% was distributed among numerous smaller markets.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from CIS in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Pastry export volumes from the CIS have grown for the third consecutive year. In 2020, exports were valued at 260.4 M $ US, up 6.3% from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports increased by 33.4%, with a compound annual growth rate of 10.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from CIS in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, the export landscape in value terms was broad. Ukraine contributed 3.6% of exports, China 2.7%, and Mongolia 2.6%, together representing just 8.9% of total flows. The substantial majority, 91.1%, went to a wide array of other countries.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from CIS in value, 2017-2020

Imports pastry to CIS

Imports in kind, K t

In 2020, pastry imports into the CIS amounted to 143.8 K t, increasing by 4.1% compared to the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, imports grew by 16.4%, averaging 5.2% per year. The highest level was recorded in 2018 at 144.5 K t, with the largest annual increase of 17.0% that year. In 2019, imports saw the largest decline of 4.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to CIS in kind, 2017-2020, K t

During 2017-2020, the supplier base for pastry imports into the CIS was extensive. Poland accounted for 16.1% of imports in kind, Germany for 7.8%, and Ukraine for 6.5%, together comprising 30.4% of total imports. Many other countries held smaller but notable shares.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to CIS in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

After two years of growth, pastry import volumes into the CIS declined. In 2020, imports were valued at 519.7 M $ US, showing little change from the year before. From 2017 to 2020, imports increased by 25.1%, with an average annual rate of 7.8%. The peak value was in 2019 at 522.4 M $ US, and the largest annual increase of 14.8% occurred in 2018.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to CIS in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

The country composition of imports in value terms from 2017 to 2020 was dispersed. Poland made up 17.9% of imports, Germany 11.6%, and Italy 6.5%, together accounting for 36.0% of total flows. The remaining 64.0% was spread across a diverse range of other destinations.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to CIS in value, 2017-2020