Bread market in CIS

Earlier Report Observations

The bread market in CIS was around 300 thousand tons in 2018 but declined to 288.5 thousand tons by 2020. This dip was partly due to unfavorable conditions in 2018, and in 2020 the COVID‑19 pandemic spurred the entry of new players in the bakery semi‑finished products segment targeting ready meals, which altered consumption patterns.

In 2021, market volume rose to 319.7 thousand tons, a 10.8% increase from 2020. This growth was driven by the rapid expansion of the semi‑finished products market, where sales doubled, and by the entry of major retailers like X5 Retail Group and Magnit, which launched their own bakeries, boosting the availability of fresh baked goods.

However, in 2022 and 2023 the market volume dropped sharply to 247.7 thousand tons and 203.0 thousand tons respectively. This contraction coincided with the impact of geopolitical risks and sanctions that began affecting the economy, as well as rising consumer bread prices, although inflation remained moderate. During this period, large producers strengthened their positions, and demand for longer‑shelf‑life products grew.

Production bread in CIS

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of bread, 2017-2020

World map of production of bread, 2017-2020

Bread production in the CIS declined after two years of growth. In 2019, production reached its peak at 189.0 K t, marking a 3.3% increase. However, in 2020, output fell to 183.1 K t, representing a 3.1% decrease from the previous year.

Annual dynamics of production in CIS in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Following two years of expansion, the value of bread production in the CIS decreased. In 2019, production peaked at 1 460 M $ US, with a 3.8% rise. By 2020, the value dropped to 1 287 M $ US, an 11.8% decline from 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, production fell by 5.4%, translating to a compound annual growth rate of 1.8%.

Annual dynamics of production in CIS in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports bread from CIS

Exports in kind, K t

Bread exports from the CIS have grown for three consecutive years. In 2020, export volume reached 37.1 K t, showing a significant 17.0% increase compared to 2019. From 2017 to 2020, exports surged by 43.6%, with a compound annual growth rate of 12.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from CIS in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Between 2017 and 2020, the top buyers of bread from the CIS were China (3.9% of exports in kind), Ukraine (3.7%), and Georgia (3.2%). Together, they accounted for 10.9% of total exports in kind, indicating a diversified market structure with no single dominant country.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from CIS in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

CIS bread exports have increased for the third year in a row. In 2020, exports were valued at 260.7 M $ US, reflecting a moderate 6.5% growth from 2019. Over the 2017-2020 span, exports rose by 34.5%, equivalent to an annualized rate of 10.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from CIS in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, no single market dominated CIS bread exports in value terms. Ukraine (3.6% of exports), Georgia (2.7%), and Mongolia (2.5%) collectively made up only 8.8% of total export value, with numerous smaller partners contributing modest shares.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from CIS in value, 2017-2020

Imports bread to CIS

Imports in kind, K t

Bread imports into the CIS saw a limited uptick in 2020, reaching 142.5 K t, a 3.7% increase from 2019. The peak was in 2018 at 143.7 K t, with a 17.5% rise that year, followed by a 4.4% decline in 2019. Overall, imports grew by 16.5% from 2017 to 2020, averaging a 5.2% annualized rate.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to CIS in kind, 2017-2020, K t

During 2017-2020, CIS bread imports in kind were not dominated by any single country. Poland (16.0% of imports), Germany (7.7%), and Ukraine (6.2%) together accounted for 29.9% of total imports, while many other partners held smaller individual shares.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to CIS in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

After two years of growth, the value of bread imports into the CIS declined. In 2019, imports peaked at 522.9 M $ US, with a 14.8% increase in 2018. In 2020, imports stood at 521.4 M $ US, showing no significant change from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports increased by 25.8%, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to CIS in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, the import landscape for bread in value terms was broad. Poland (17.6% of imports), Germany (11.5%), and Italy (6.5%) together represented 35.6% of total imports, leaving a substantial 64.4% to be supplied by many other countries.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to CIS in value, 2017-2020