Bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares market in CIS

Earlier Report Observations

The market volume for bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares in the CIS reached 8 957 thousand tonnes in 2018, supported by the opening of new bakeries and an increase in the number of businesses, which expanded product variety and competition. Consumer preferences began shifting towards sweet biscuits, production of which had been growing. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic reduced sales, especially in food service, pulling the market volume down to 8 671 thousand tonnes.

Market volume recovered to 8 801 thousand tonnes in 2021, though growth slowed as the market for flour-based products became saturated. Major players diversified into frozen semi-finished goods and competed through enhanced service and delivery. Sanctions and international restrictions in 2022 drove up raw material costs and created logistical hurdles, lowering the market to 8 732 thousand tonnes. Demand for flour-based desserts and sweet biscuits then fueled a rebound to 8 807 thousand tonnes in 2023, aided by large companies actively developing frozen bakery semi-finished segments.

In 2024, confectionery production, including flour-based items, continued to grow, while the bakery market in Russia expanded. However, market saturation and declining populations in key consumer countries acted as limiting factors, although supply remained adequate due to the activity of domestic producers and international brands operating locally.

Production bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares in CIS

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares, 2017-2020

World map of production of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares, 2017-2020

Production of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares in the CIS has declined for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the region produced 8 514.9 thousand tons of these products, marking a 2.6% decrease compared to the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production fell by 3.6%, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.2%.

Annual dynamics of production in CIS in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Following two years of growth, the production volume of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares in the CIS declined. In 2020, the output was valued at 48 487 million US dollars, reflecting a moderate reduction of 9.0% from 2019. The peak value was recorded in 2019 at 53 299 million US dollars, while the largest increase occurred in 2018 with a 4.3% rise.

Annual dynamics of production in CIS in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares from CIS

Exports in kind, K t

Exports of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares from the CIS have increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the region exported 97.8 thousand tons of these goods, representing a 14.1% increase compared to the previous year. From 2017 to 2020, exports grew by 28.2%, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from CIS in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, the partner portfolio for exports in kind of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares from the CIS was quite broad. China accounted for 5.4% of exports in kind, Mongolia for 3.7%, and Georgia for 3.7%, with these three countries together representing only 12.7% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from CIS in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Exports of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares from the CIS have increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the export volume totaled 557.1 million US dollars, indicating a moderate increase of 6.6% compared to the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, exports rose by 31.1%, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from CIS in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, the country breakdown of exports in value terms remained scattered. China represented 6.0% of exports in value terms, Mongolia 4.3%, and Georgia 3.3%, with these three partners together accounting for just 13.6% of total flows, and no single country emerged as clearly dominant.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from CIS in value, 2017-2020

Imports bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares to CIS

Imports in kind, K t

In 2020, the CIS imported 254.1 thousand tons of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares, showing an 8.5% increase from 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, imports grew by 12.9%, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.1%. The highest import volume was recorded in 2018 at 258.5 thousand tons, while the largest decline occurred in 2019 with a 9.4% drop, and the largest increase was in 2018 with a 14.9% rise.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to CIS in kind, 2017-2020, K t

The country composition of imports in kind from 2017 to 2020 was dispersed. Poland accounted for 11.2% of imports in kind, Ukraine for 10.1%, and Germany for 4.8%, with these three countries together forming just 26.1% of total flows, while the remaining 73.9% was distributed among a wide range of other destinations.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to CIS in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

After two years of growth, the volume of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares imports to the CIS declined. In 2020, imports totaled 869.5 million US dollars, equivalent to a small fall of 2.5% compared to 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, imports increased by 22.8%, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.1%. The peak value was recorded in 2019 at 891.9 million US dollars, and the largest increase occurred in 2018 with a 15.0% rise.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to CIS in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

During 2017 to 2020, imports in value terms of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares to the CIS were allocated across a large number of markets. Poland accounted for 14.4% of imports in value terms, Germany for 8.3%, and Ukraine for 8.1%, with these three countries jointly accounting for only 30.7% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to CIS in value, 2017-2020