Pastry market in Central Asia

Earlier Report Observations

The pastry market in Central Asia expanded from 138 070 t in 2018 to 186 349 t in 2023, driven by sustained import growth and changing consumer habits. Initially, the market relied heavily on imported sweets, with over half of confectionery supplied from abroad, while local producers faced vulnerability due to dependence on imported raw materials like cocoa beans, sugar, and nuts. In 2019, demand shifted toward cheaper baked goods like cookies as consumer incomes tightened, supporting market volume growth. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 further boosted demand for home-based snacks and pastries, and a temporary drop in global ingredient costs helped maintain production volumes despite logistical challenges.

Following the pandemic, the market continued to grow as new importers from Ukraine and Turkey entered, diversifying the product range. Regulatory changes also shaped the industry, with amendments to food safety and labeling laws in 2022 imposing stricter packaging and composition requirements. Despite increased competition from imports—especially after preferential trade regimes for Russian confectionery were lifted—local production gradually increased, reaching 95 168 t by 2023. Sanitary rules for food service establishments were tightened in 2022–2023, enhancing control over production facilities.

By 2023, the market saw record production levels, fueled by post-pandemic recovery and heightened consumer demand. Imports remained high, accounting for a significant share of supply due to ongoing reliance on foreign cocoa and sugar. Retail consumption of sweets grew in some regions, reflecting a preference for more affordable brands. Overall, the market's expansion was supported by these structural and demand-side factors, with the value in monetary terms rising to $1.39 billion in 2023 after a dip in earlier years.

Production pastry in Central Asia

In kind, 2017-2020, t

Top producers of pastry, 2017-2020

World map of production of pastry, 2017-2020

Pastry production in Central Asia has grown for the third year in a row. In 2020, the region produced 90 722 tonnes of pastry, marking a 1.7% increase compared to 2019. Looking at the period from 2017 to 2020, production rose by 9.8%, which translates to an average annual growth rate of 3.2%.

Annual dynamics of production in Central Asia in kind, 2017-2020, t

Exports pastry from Central Asia

Exports in kind, t

Pastry exports from Central Asia have expanded for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the region exported 9 314 tonnes of pastry, reflecting a solid 13.1% increase from 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, exports surged by 180.5%, equivalent to an annualized growth rate of 41.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Central Asia in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Russia, Mongolia, and China were the key markets for Central Asia's pastry exports in volume terms. Russia accounted for 23.9% of exports, Mongolia for 13.2%, and China for 3.1%, together making up 40.2% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Central Asia in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

The value of pastry exports from Central Asia has risen for the third year in a row. In 2020, exports reached 23.1 million US dollars, up 20.0% from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, export value increased by 77.3%, with an average annual growth rate of 21.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Central Asia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

During 2017-2020, Russia, Mongolia, and China were the leading destinations for Central Asia's pastry exports in value terms. Russia held a 15.7% share, Mongolia 7.9%, and China 1.5%, collectively representing 25.1% of total export value.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Central Asia in value, 2017-2020

Imports pastry to Central Asia

Imports in kind, t

Pastry imports into Central Asia have grown for the third consecutive year. In 2020, imports totaled 69 928 tonnes, showing a substantial 13.9% increase compared to 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, import volume rose by 52.3%, which corresponds to an annualized growth rate of 15.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Central Asia in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Russia was the primary source for pastry imports into Central Asia in volume terms, accounting for 81.4% of total imports. The remaining volume was distributed among numerous other countries.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Central Asia in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

The value of pastry imports into Central Asia has increased for the third year running. In 2020, imports amounted to 130.5 million US dollars, with a modest 4.1% rise from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, import value grew by 44.6%, averaging 13.1% per year.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Central Asia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

In 2017-2020, Russia dominated Central Asia's pastry imports in value terms, representing 76.2% of total import value. The rest was shared among various smaller trading partners.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Central Asia in value, 2017-2020