Bread market in Africa

Earlier Report Observations

The African bread market volume expanded from 580.5 тыс. т in 2018 to 643.2 тыс. т in 2020, supported by rising consumption of ultra-processed foods driven by their increased availability and affordability, alongside shifting socio-economic factors that created new opportunities for these products in both urban and rural settings.

A subsequent decline to 577.6 тыс. т by 2022 was linked to growing recognition of the negative environmental and social impacts of ultra-processed foods on local farmers and traditional supply chains, coupled with evolving dietary habits associated with the triple burden of malnutrition. The market recovered to 619.4 тыс. т in 2023.

In 2024, South Africa's agricultural production contracted due to an El Niño-induced drought, affecting key raw material supplies. The same year saw Amazon enter the South African market, intensifying competition in grocery retail, while consumer preferences shifted markedly toward health and wellness-oriented products.

Production bread in Africa

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of bread, 2017-2020

World map of production of bread, 2017-2020

Africa's bread production has increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, the continent produced 566.3 thousand tons of bread, marking a solid 10.3% increase compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, production grew by 26.3%, with an average annual growth rate of 8.1%. The lowest production level was recorded in 2018 at 435.6 thousand tons, which also saw the largest decline of 2.8%. The most significant increase occurred in 2019 with a 17.8% rise.

Annual dynamics of production in Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

In 2020, Africa's bread output was valued at 2 589 million US dollars, showing only minor fluctuations compared to the previous year. The lowest value was recorded in 2018 at 2 413 million US dollars, while the highest value reached 2 590 million US dollars in 2019. The most substantial decline occurred in 2018 with a 5.0% drop, and the largest increase was recorded in 2019 with a 7.3% rise.

Annual dynamics of production in Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports bread from Africa

Exports in kind, K t

The market showed an unstable trend throughout the period. Exports reached their lowest point in 2017 and peaked in 2019, with a two-fold difference between these years. In 2020, Africa's bread exports totaled 22.0 thousand tons, representing a 36.8% decrease from the previous year. The highest export volume was recorded in 2019 at 34.7 thousand tons, while the largest increase occurred in 2018 with a 101.0% surge.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Between 2017 and 2020, Africa's bread exports in kind were distributed across a wide range of partner countries. The United States accounted for 5.4% of exports, the United Arab Emirates for 5.2%, and France for 2.4%. Together, these three countries represented just 13.0% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Following two years of growth, Africa's bread exports declined. In 2020, exports were valued at 88.9 million US dollars, showing a solid 14.3% drop compared to the previous year. The highest value was recorded in 2019 at 103.7 million US dollars, while the largest increase occurred in 2018 with a 14.2% rise.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, the partner landscape for bread exports in value terms was diverse. The United States accounted for 4.8% of exports, France for 4.7%, and the United Arab Emirates for 3.5%. Combined, these three countries represented only 13.0% of total flows, with the remaining 87.0% distributed among many other trading partners.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Africa in value, 2017-2020

Imports bread to Africa

Imports in kind, K t

The market experienced noticeable fluctuations during this period. Imports reached their lowest point in 2020 and peaked in 2018, showing a 1.8-fold swing between these years. In 2020, Africa imported 98.8 thousand tons of bread, representing a modest 8.2% decrease from the previous year. The highest import volume was recorded in 2018 at 179.0 thousand tons. The largest decline occurred in 2019 with a 39.8% drop, while the most significant increase was recorded in 2018 with a 75.9% rise.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Between 2017 and 2020, Africa's bread imports in kind came from a wide range of partner countries. Brazil accounted for 15.8% of imports, Turkey for 14.0%, and India for 8.5%. Together, these three countries represented just 38.3% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

After two years of improvement, Africa's bread imports declined. In 2020, imports were valued at 226.6 million US dollars, down 6.6% from the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, imports increased by 15.1%, equating to an average annual growth rate of 4.8%. The highest value was recorded in 2019 at 242.5 million US dollars, while the largest increase occurred in 2018 with a 17.4% rise.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, the geographical structure of bread imports in value terms was highly diversified. France accounted for 12.0% of imports, Turkey for 9.7%, and Malaysia for 7.7%. Together, these three countries represented only 29.4% of total flows, while the remaining 70.6% was distributed among numerous smaller partner countries.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Africa in value, 2017-2020