China is shipping more rare-earth products as its export licensing regime loosens following a framework trade deal with the United States and a Trump-Xi summit. Analysts including BMI and researchers at Resources for the Future say Beijing's structural control over mining, processing and magnet production means the underlying dependence of importers has not changed.
Indonesia has cut mining quotas and approved a new export tax, tightening supply from the country that produces more than 60% of the world's nickel and pushing prices to a two-year high. The squeeze coincides with a new US-Indonesia commodities deal that analysts say challenges China's entrenched position in the market.
The World Bank forecasts global commodity prices will rise 16% in 2026, the first annual increase since 2022, as the Middle East conflict drives energy prices up 24% and pushes fertilizer, aluminum and precious metals toward record highs. Agriculture is the sole commodity group expected to fall, as a slump in beverage prices offsets a modest rise in food costs.
A World Bank report shows the war in Iran driving a projected 24% jump in energy prices this year and pushing fertiliser, aluminium, copper and tin toward multi-year or record highs as Strait of Hormuz closures disrupt seaborne trade. The bank warns risks remain tilted toward even higher prices, while separate reports point to rising resin costs and China's first factory-gate price increase in three years.
President Trump said the new baseline US tariff on imports will be 15%, not the 10% announced a day earlier, after the Supreme Court struck down his prior global tariffs. The move, using a rarely-invoked 1974 trade law, creates uncertainty for the UK, Australia, EU and other partners that had negotiated lower rates.
President Trump said the US will raise its new global tariff to 15% from 10%, a day after the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that his use of emergency powers to impose earlier tariffs was unconstitutional. The new rate, set under a different legal authority, is lower than many of last year's country-specific duties but higher for some trading partners, while Brussels says the impact on the EU economy will be limited.
Delays in Brazil's coffee harvest are being linked to a renewed rise in US coffee prices, even as reports point to easing supply conditions elsewhere in the global market. Brazil's position as the world's largest coffee producer means slower-than-expected harvesting there is rippling through pricing despite looser supply pressure in other regions.
Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, including a Qatari LNG carrier, prompted new US strikes on Iran and the revocation of a sanctions waiver on Iranian oil sales. Brent crude jumped as much as 6% intraday, tankers made U-turns, and the IMO urged ships to avoid the waterway.
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