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| Agriculture: Crops & Grains

Afghanistan becomes top buyer of Kazakh wheat flour as Astana subsidises transport

Afghanistan is now the undisputed leader in purchases of Kazakh wheat flour and is turning from a peripheral outlet into a driver of Kazakhstan's southern grain corridor, ZOL.ru reported. Astana subsidises transport costs on flour exports to Afghanistan at 16,338 tenge per tonne, and shipments to the country rose 57% in the first half of 2026. Kazakh millers face hard competition from Uzbekistan, which has built up its own processing industry.

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Kevin O'Sullivan
Lead Electronics & Technology Analyst
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| Trade Policy & Macro

Thai producer prices jump 9.1% in August on energy and raw material costs

Thailand's producer price index rose 9.1% year-on-year in August 2026, according to the Trade Policy and Strategy Office. Office director Nanthaphong Chiralertphong attributed the increase to higher energy and raw material costs. The reading points to cost-push pressure on manufacturers rather than stronger end-demand.

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Yusuf Demir
Senior Trade Policy Analyst
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| Agriculture: Crops & Grains

Italy Faces Olive Oil Oversupply as Origin Prices Fall 46.7% Before a Smaller Harvest

Italian storage still held close to 200,000 tonnes of olive oil in early September, while the average origin price for extra virgin fell to €5.12 per kilogram in July, down 46.7% year on year. Italia Olivicola expects the new crop at 260,000-280,000 tonnes against 325,000 tonnes in 2025/2026, with the south contracting and the centre-north recovering.

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Martin Keller
Senior Agricultural Commodities Analyst
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| Agriculture: Crops & Grains

El Niño Hits Peruvian Export Crops as Garlic Prices Fall to $2.30–2.50

Peruvian exporter Prive says El Niño was the decisive factor of the season, forcing greener mandarins to market and closing that campaign about 15 days late. Garlic prices have fallen to $2.30–2.50 from $3.50–3.60 a year earlier on oversupply in Chile and Argentina and a larger planted area in Mexico. Avocado, mango and grape campaigns start between late October and November.

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Ana Lucia Fernandes
Senior Agricultural Commodities Analyst
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| Food & Beverages

EU reserves 31 meat terms from 2029, putting plant-based exporters on notice

Regulation (EU) 2026/1739 reserves the word "meat" and 31 further terms, from beef and chicken to ribeye, T-bone and bacon, for meat and meat products at all marketing stages from 19 August 2029. The rules cover goods imported into the Union, with a stock run-off ending no later than 19 August 2032. Vietnamese exporters of vegan, vegetarian and plant-based foods have been told to review names, packaging and marketing material well before the deadline.

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David Okafor
Food & Beverage Analyst
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| Metals & Mining

Coface: Copper, Nickel and Aluminium Face Structural Deficits by 2035

A new Coface analysis reported by Il Sole 24 Ore projects structural supply deficits in copper, nickel and aluminium by 2035 as electrification outpaces mining and smelting capacity. Copper could face a shortfall of 1.5 to 6.5 million tonnes and refined nickel around 6.5 million tonnes under a Net Zero scenario, with copper and nickel prices seen nearly doubling over the decade.

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Thomas Reid
Senior Metals & Mining Analyst
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| Agriculture: Crops & Grains

South Africa's agricultural exports rise 10% to $4.1 billion in second quarter of 2026

South African agricultural exports reached US$4.1 billion in the second quarter of 2026, taking first-half shipments to US$7.8 billion, 11% above 2025. Africa took about 40% of the total, while exports to the United States jumped 56% quarter-on-quarter after tariffs fell from 30% to 12.5%. Beef shipments remained constrained by foot-and-mouth disease.

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Martin Keller
Senior Agricultural Commodities Analyst
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| Agriculture: Crops & Grains

Algeria seeks 50,000 tonnes of soft wheat for November shipment

Algeria’s OAIC has issued an international tender for a nominal 50,000 tonnes of soft milling wheat with flexible origin. The purchase comes after roughly 3 million tonnes of soft-wheat imports since the start of 2026, as domestic production remains concentrated in durum wheat.

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Martin Keller
Senior Agricultural Commodities Analyst
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| Food & Beverages

Cargill invests $60 million to expand processed poultry and grain storage in Thailand

Cargill is putting more than 2 billion baht ($60 million) into its processed poultry network in Thailand, including a new automated cooked-chicken line in Saraburi due in 2028. The company expects output and exports from Thailand to reach about 160,000 metric tonnes a year, worth roughly 25 billion baht in annual export value. A separate 30,000 metric tonne grain silo in Nakhon Ratchasima is due to be completed in December 2026.

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David Okafor
Food & Beverage Analyst
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| Energy & Fuels

Poland enters heating season with 450,000 pellet households and 1.17 million tonnes of fuel

Onet.pl reports that about 450,000 Polish households depend on pellet-fired biomass boilers while only 1.17 million tonnes of pellet are available on the market. Wyborcza.biz describes empty warehouses and steep price increases ahead of winter, and argues that no simple fix remains this close to the heating season.

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Daniel Brooks
Lead Energy Markets Analyst
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| Agriculture: Crops & Grains

Cocoa futures rise after Ghana proposes 6% higher farmgate price for 2026/27

Ghana's cocoa regulator has proposed raising the price paid to farmers by roughly 6 per cent for the 2026/27 season. Cocoa futures strengthened on the news as traders covered short positions and reassessed the supply outlook from one of the world's two largest producers.

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Charlotte Dubois
Senior Consumer Goods Analyst
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