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Commodity and industrial market news — prices, production, trade and regulation — with expert analysis

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| Energy & Fuels

Russian thermal coal export prices could fall 10–20% by the end of 2028

Russian thermal coal export prices could end 2028 at 10–20% below their June levels, depending on the destination, according to a Neft Research forecast cited by Kommersant. Recovering global supply is expected to outweigh recent support from Middle East tensions and disruptions in major producing countries.

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Daniel Brooks
Lead Energy Markets Analyst
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| Energy & Fuels

Indonesia raises high-calorie coal benchmark to $131.85/tonne for late July

Indonesia's energy ministry lifted its Coal Reference Price (HBA) for high-calorie coal to US$131.85 per tonne in the second period of July 2026, up from US$126.58. Two lower grades also firmed while the 5,300 kcal grade eased. The benchmark drives sales prices and producers' payments to the state.

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Priya Raghavan
Energy Markets Analyst
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| Chemicals & Fertilizers

Poland’s tire recycling costs rise as waste volumes reach 340,000 tonnes

Poland generates about 250,000-340,000 tonnes of end-of-life tires annually, with 60% used for energy recovery and 35% recycled into materials. Grupa Recykl says higher fuel, labor and energy expenses are raising processing costs, while its first-quarter revenue growth failed to prevent a net loss.

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Katrin Vogel
Lead Chemicals & Fertilizers Analyst
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| Food & Beverages

Brazil’s sugar and ethanol sector rejects new 25% US tariff

Brazilian sugar and ethanol producers say a new 25% US tariff disregards the realities of bilateral trade. The measure is due to take effect on July 22 and will affect a market that bought 253 million liters of Brazilian ethanol and 420,000 metric tons of sugar in 2025.

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Isabella Romano
Lead Food & Beverage Analyst
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| Food & Beverages

Suntory to reclassify Kinmugi as beer under Japan’s alcohol tax reform

Suntory will convert its Kinmugi and Kinmugi 75% Less Carbohydrate products from low-tax quasi-beer to beer on October 6. The company plans to reflect only the additional tax in prices, including ¥880 for a six-pack of 350 ml cans, while retaining the brand’s economy positioning.

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David Okafor
Food & Beverage Analyst
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| Energy & Fuels

Romanian wholesale electricity prices triple since pandemic to 136 EUR/MWh

Wholesale electricity in Romania averaged 136 euros per MWh between 2021 and 2025, up from 45 euros in 2019-2020, according to a Romanian Economic Monitor analysis cited by libertatea.ro. Import dependence and a 5 billion euro energy deficit expose the economy, even as solar costs fall sharply.

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Daniel Brooks
Lead Energy Markets Analyst
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| Agriculture: Crops & Grains

Brazil’s beef exports and revenue reached records in 2025, Abiec says

Brazil exported 3.5 million tonnes of beef worth nearly $18 billion in 2025, according to Abiec’s Beef Report 2026. Production reached 12.35 million tonnes carcass-weight equivalent, making the country the world’s largest beef producer as well as its leading exporter.

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Ana Lucia Fernandes
Senior Agricultural Commodities Analyst
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| Agriculture: Crops & Grains

Indonesian farmgate paddy price reaches Rp7,000/kg, exceeding government floor

Indonesia’s average farmgate price for harvested dry paddy has reached about Rp7,000 per kilogram, above the government purchase price of Rp6,500. Higher paddy prices support farmers’ incomes and production incentives, but they could also push retail rice prices above official ceilings.

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Ana Lucia Fernandes
Senior Agricultural Commodities Analyst
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| Agriculture: Crops & Grains

Japan tightens seed law after overseas leakage of premium fruit varieties

Japan has approved a revised Seed and Seedling Act that allows earlier intervention against unauthorized exports of newly developed cultivars. The legislation follows estimated annual losses of nearly ¥20 billion from the overseas spread of Shine Muscat grapes.

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Ana Lucia Fernandes
Senior Agricultural Commodities Analyst
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