Brazil’s soybean crushing forecast to reach record 63.5 million tonnes in 2026

Domestic crushing forecast rises

Brazil’s soybean industry is expected to process a record 63.5 million tonnes of beans in 2026, according to a monthly report from the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries, Abiove. The association raised its previous estimate of 63.3 million tonnes. The new forecast is approximately 8.5% above the previous record of 58.5 million tonnes, registered in 2025.

The expansion would increase the share of Brazil’s crop converted domestically into soybean meal and oil. Abiove kept its national soybean production estimate unchanged at 180.46 million tonnes, while marginally reducing its forecast for exports of unprocessed beans from 115.4 million to 115 million tonnes. The adjustment leaves a larger volume available for processing and value addition within Brazil.

Total exports from Brazil’s soybean complex reached 92.79 million tonnes between January and August 2026, compared with 86.53 million tonnes in the same period of 2025, an increase of about 7%. The figures cover beans and their main processed products and indicate that higher domestic crushing has so far coincided with continued growth in overseas shipments.

Oil sales rise as India drives demand

Abiove increased its forecast for soybean oil production in 2026 to 12.80 million tonnes from 12.75 million tonnes. Full-year oil exports are projected at 1.80 million tonnes, 36% above the 1.32 million tonnes shipped in 2025. From January through August, exports rose 42% to 1.5 million tonnes.

India was the principal source of that growth. Its purchases of Brazilian soybean oil increased 56% and accounted for 70% of Brazil’s total exports of the product. The concentration creates a strong outlet for additional processing volumes, although it also makes oil exporters more exposed to changes in Indian demand. Brazil’s closing soybean oil stocks are forecast to decline 6%, from 836,000 to 786,000 tonnes, as exports absorb more supply.

Soybean meal output is now forecast at 48.90 million tonnes, up from the previous estimate of 48.70 million tonnes. Abiove maintained its export projection at 25.30 million tonnes, which would still be 8.5% higher than the quantity exported in 2025. Shipments in the first eight months of 2026 increased 13% to 17.3 million tonnes. Purchases by the Middle East rose 387% to 1.87 million tonnes, providing an increasingly important market for Brazilian crushers. Meal inventories are nevertheless expected to grow 4.9% to 4.30 million tonnes.

Buyer base becomes more diversified

China remained the leading buyer of Brazilian soybeans, but its purchases through August fell to 64.75 million tonnes from 85.43 million tonnes in the corresponding annual comparison reported by A Rede, citing CNN Brasil. Other destinations increased their intake. Asian countries excluding China raised purchases from 8.70 million to 10.55 million tonnes, while the European Union increased imports from 6.75 million to 7.92 million tonnes.

The shift reduces Brazil’s dependence on one market for unprocessed beans, while India and the Middle East are becoming more significant for oil and meal. For crushers, this creates several demand channels across the soybean complex rather than relying exclusively on China’s appetite for whole beans. For overseas buyers, Brazil’s larger processing base expands access to feed ingredients and vegetable oil as well as raw soybeans.

Daniel Furlan Amaral, Abiove’s director of economics and regulatory affairs, said the revisions reflect the strength of domestic processing and firm international demand for soybean oil. The 2026 outlook positions Brazil to export both record crop volumes and a larger proportion of higher-value derivatives, but the expected decline in oil stocks and increase in meal inventories show that supply conditions will differ between the two processed markets.