Wheat and meslin market in Uzbekistan

Earlier Report Observations

The wheat and meslin market in Uzbekistan expanded from 7.6 million tons in 2018 to 8.9 million tons in 2020. This growth was primarily driven by increased domestic production, which rose by over 12% in 2019. A key factor was the sharp 37% increase in the price of wheat imported from Kazakhstan, making local production more competitive. During this period, the state-owned company AO «Uzdonmakhsulot» maintained control over grain processing, purchasing, and storage, which supported the domestic supply chain.

Market volume dipped to 8.2 million tons in 2021 following the abolition of state-set procurement prices and government grain purchases starting with the 2021 harvest. This policy change introduced uncertainty, contributing to a 21% drop in imports that year. The market recovered strongly thereafter, reaching 9.8 million tons in 2023. This rebound was fueled by growing shipments from Kazakhstan, which increased by more than 50% in early 2023 due to rising demand and improved logistics between the two countries.

In the first half of 2024, wheat imports from Kazakhstan fell by 34% year-on-year, while export prices declined by 6%. A proposed export duty of €60 per ton in Kazakhstan could further affect trade flows with Uzbekistan.

Production wheat and meslin in Uzbekistan

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Uzbekistan maintained the 21st position globally in terms of wheat and meslin production volume.

Top producers of wheat and meslin, 2017-2020

World map of production of wheat and meslin, 2017-2020

Uzbekistan's wheat and meslin production increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, the country produced 6 158 K t of wheat and meslin, reflecting a 1.1% rise compared to 2019. The lowest production level was recorded in 2018 at 5 411 K t, which represented the largest decline of 11.0% during this period. The most significant increase occurred in 2019, with production growing by 12.6%.

Annual dynamics of production in Uzbekistan in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Uzbekistan's wheat and meslin production value rose for the second year in a row. In 2020, the output was valued at 1 285 M $ US, showing a modest increase of 2.7% from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, production value grew by 10.8%, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.5%. The lowest value was recorded in 2018 at 1 035 M $ US, marking the largest decline of 10.7%. The most substantial increase took place in 2019, with a 20.9% rise.

Annual dynamics of production in Uzbekistan in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports wheat and meslin from Uzbekistan

Exports in kind, K t

Wheat and meslin exports from Uzbekistan declined for the third consecutive year. In 2020, exports amounted to 48 K t, representing a sharp decrease of 53.8% from 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports fell by 82.7%, with a compound annual decline rate of 44.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Uzbekistan in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Between 2017 and 2020, Afghanistan was the dominant market for Uzbekistan's wheat and meslin exports in kind, accounting for 83.3% of total flows, while other countries made up the remaining share.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Uzbekistan in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

The market displayed volatility during the observed period. From 2017 to 2020, there was a peak-to-trough amplitude of 5.3 times. In 2020, Uzbekistan's wheat and meslin export value reached 10.1 M $ US, equivalent to a sharp decline of 53.0% compared to 2019. The largest decrease was recorded in 2018 at 61.4%, while the most significant increase occurred in 2019, with a 4.6% rise.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Uzbekistan in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Throughout 2017-2020, the partner structure for exports in value terms was centered on Afghanistan, which held an 83.2% share of total flows, while other markets constituted a less significant portion.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Uzbekistan in value, 2017-2020

Imports wheat and meslin to Uzbekistan

Imports in kind, K t

In 2020, wheat and meslin imports into Uzbekistan totaled 2 800 K t, which is 28.1% higher than in 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, imports increased by 89.7%, equating to an annualized growth rate of 23.8%. The largest decline was recorded in 2019 at 2.9%, while the most substantial increase occurred in 2018, with a 52.5% rise.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Uzbekistan in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, wheat and meslin imports into Uzbekistan were almost exclusively supplied by Kazakhstan, which accounted for 99.6% of total imports in kind.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Uzbekistan in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Uzbekistan's wheat and meslin imports increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, imports reached 556.5 M $ US, marking a steep increase of 52.8% year-over-year. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports grew by 219.3%, with a compound annual growth rate of 47.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Uzbekistan in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Throughout 2017-2020, Kazakhstan almost entirely determined the geographical structure of wheat and meslin imports into Uzbekistan in value terms, with a share of 99.1% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Uzbekistan in value, 2017-2020