Wheat and meslin market in Africa

Earlier Report Observations

In 2018 and 2019, the African wheat and meslin market volume contracted from 75 314 thousand tons to 58 351 thousand tons. This decline coincided with maintained regulations on agricultural imports, including wheat and meslin, which restricted inbound shipments. The market then surged to 99 009 thousand tons in 2020 as extreme weather conditions linked to climate change reduced domestic production, forcing a sharp rise in imports to meet demand.

New standards for the classification, packing, and marking of processed agricultural products, introduced in 2021, created additional compliance requirements for importers, contributing to a drop in wheat imports and a market reduction to 73 635 thousand tons. In 2022, the volume fell further to 67 735 thousand tons, driven by soaring global grain prices due to the war in Ukraine and droughts, which raised import costs, alongside continued adverse climate effects on harvests.

The market rebounded strongly in 2023, reaching a peak of 109 194 thousand tons. This increase was fueled by a massive rise in imports to 83 531 thousand tons, which offset a slight decrease in domestic production.

Production wheat and meslin in Africa

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of wheat and meslin, 2017-2020

World map of production of wheat and meslin, 2017-2020

Africa's wheat and meslin production has declined for the second year in a row. In 2020, production reached 25 697 thousand tonnes, which represents a 3.9% decrease compared to 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, overall production fell by 4%, with an average annual decline of 1.4%. The highest production level was recorded in 2018 at 29 606 thousand tonnes, marking a 10.6% increase that year. The most significant drop occurred in 2019, with a decline of 9.7%.

Annual dynamics of production in Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports wheat and meslin from Africa

Exports in kind, K t

The market showed considerable volatility during these years. Exports reached their lowest point in 2018 at 13 thousand tonnes and peaked in 2019 at 191 thousand tonnes, representing a 14.4-fold difference. In 2020, Africa's wheat and meslin exports totaled 55 thousand tonnes, which is a 71.3% decrease compared to the previous year. The largest decline was recorded in 2018 at 92.8%, while the most substantial increase occurred in 2019 with a remarkable 1,344.1% growth.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Italy accounted for 3.4% of Africa's wheat and meslin exports in volume, followed by Special Categories and Yemen, each with 0.8%. Together, these three destinations represented 5.0% of total export volumes.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Market performance showed noticeable fluctuations during this period. Export values dropped to their minimum in 2018 at 27 million US dollars and climbed to their maximum in 2020 at 68 million US dollars, a 2.5-fold increase. In 2020, Africa's wheat and meslin exports in value terms reached 68 million US dollars, reflecting a 32.2% increase from the previous year. The largest decline was recorded in 2018 at 42.2%, while the most significant increase occurred in 2019 with a 91.1% rise.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, Italy was the leading destination for Africa's wheat and meslin exports in value terms, accounting for 2.0% of total exports. Yemen followed with 0.9%, and Special Categories with 0.7%. Collectively, these three markets represented 3.6% of total export value.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Africa in value, 2017-2020

Imports wheat and meslin to Africa

Imports in kind, K t

Market performance exhibited noticeable fluctuations during this period. Imports reached their lowest point in 2019 at 31 806 thousand tonnes and peaked in 2020 at 73 367 thousand tonnes, a 2.3-fold difference. In 2020, Africa's wheat and meslin imports stood at 73 367 thousand tonnes, reflecting a sharp increase of 130.7% from the previous year. The largest decline was recorded in 2019 at 30.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Russia was the largest source of Africa's wheat and meslin imports in volume, accounting for 30.9% of total imports. France followed with 18.8%, and Ukraine with 12.7%. Together, these three countries supplied 62.4% of Africa's import volumes.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

In 2020, Africa's wheat and meslin imports in value terms amounted to 13 824 million US dollars, representing a 20.5% increase from the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, import values grew by 25.5%, equivalent to an average annual rate of 7.9%. The largest decline was recorded in 2019 at 9.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Throughout 2017 to 2020, Russia remained the primary source of Africa's wheat and meslin imports in value terms, accounting for 32.3% of total imports. France followed with 15.3%, and Ukraine with 11.9%. Collectively, these three countries accounted for 59.4% of total import value.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Africa in value, 2017-2020