Wheat and meslin market in the United States

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2021, the volume of the U.S. wheat and meslin market contracted from 31 943 thousand tons to 22 240 thousand tons. This decline coincided with global wheat consumption beginning to outpace production, tightening international balance sheets and creating upward pressure on the market. Further constraint came in 2021 when global supply chain disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic significantly affected trade logistics, hampering the flow of imports and exports.

The market rebounded strongly after 2021, growing to 33 842 thousand tons by 2023. A key driver was the sharp reduction in U.S. hard red winter wheat production to near-record lows in 2022, which drove high prices in futures contracts and reflected domestic supply constraints. This occurred alongside a 16% increase in global wheat export prices, amplifying market volatility. By 2023, sustained demand was evident as imports of wheat and meslin flour continued their upward trend, supporting the market expansion. In 2024, imports grew rapidly by 13%, indicating a growing reliance on foreign supply, while global factors such as the easing of war risk premiums contributed to price stabilization.

Production wheat and meslin in the United States

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Between 2017 and 2020, the United States ranked fourth globally in wheat and meslin production.

Top producers of wheat and meslin, 2017-2020

World map of production of wheat and meslin, 2017-2020

Following two years of growth, wheat and meslin production in the United States declined. In 2020, the country produced 49 751 K t, marking a 5.4% decrease from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, production rose by 5%, averaging an annual growth rate of 1.6%. The peak was reached in 2019 at 52 581 K t, while the largest year-on-year increase occurred in 2018 at 8.3%.

Annual dynamics of production in the United States in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Wheat and meslin production in the United States fell for the second consecutive year. In 2020, the output was valued at 12 029 M $ US, reflecting a slight 1.2% drop compared to 2019. From 2017 to 2020, production value increased by 13.7%, with an average annual growth rate of 4.4%. The highest value was recorded in 2018 at 12 447 M $ US. The most significant decline took place in 2019 at 2.2%, while the largest increase occurred in 2018 at 17.7%.

Annual dynamics of production in the United States in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports wheat and meslin from the United States

Exports in kind, K t

In 2020, the United States exported 26 132 K t of wheat and meslin, a 3.5% reduction from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports decreased by 4.3%, with a compound annual growth rate of -1.4%. The lowest volume was in 2018 at 22 499 K t. The sharpest decline happened in 2018 at 17.6%, while the largest increase was in 2019 at 20.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from the United States in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, U.S. wheat and meslin exports in kind were distributed across numerous countries. Mexico (12.9% of exports), the Philippines (11.1%), and Japan (10.8%) together accounted for just 34.7% of total flows, indicating a diversified export structure.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from the United States in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Wheat and meslin exports from the United States increased for the second year in a row. In 2020, exports reached 6 318 M $ US, up 0.8% from 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, export value grew by 3.7%, averaging an annual rate of 1.2%. The lowest value was in 2018 at 5 458 M $ US. The most significant decline occurred in 2018 at 10.4%, while the largest increase was in 2019 at 14.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from the United States in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

The structure of U.S. wheat and meslin exports in value terms from 2017 to 2020 was diversified. Mexico (12.9% of exports), the Philippines (11.3%), and Japan (11.1%) combined for only 35.3% of total flows, with no single country holding a dominant position.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from the United States in value, 2017-2020

Imports wheat and meslin to the United States

Imports in kind, K t

In 2020, wheat and meslin imports to the United States totaled 1 910 K t, a 4.0% increase from 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports fell by 32.1%, with a compound annual growth rate of -12.1%. The lowest volume was in 2019 at 1 836 K t, while the peak was in 2018 at 3 136 K t. The largest decline occurred in 2019 at 41.5%, and the biggest increase was in 2018 at 11.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to the United States in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Canada was the primary source for wheat and meslin imports to the United States, consistently accounting for 98.5% of total imports in kind.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to the United States in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

In 2020, the United States imported wheat and meslin valued at 468 M $ US, an 8.2% rise from the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, import value decreased by 33.7%, averaging an annual decline of 12.8%. The lowest value was in 2019 at 432 M $ US, while the highest was in 2018 at 799 M $ US. The most significant drop happened in 2019 at 45.9%, and the largest increase was in 2018 at 13.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to the United States in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, U.S. wheat and meslin imports in value terms were highly concentrated, with Canada accounting for 98.3% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to the United States in value, 2017-2020