Wheat and meslin market in Tajikistan

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2019, the wheat and meslin market in Tajikistan expanded from 1 798 тыс. т to 1 927 тыс. т. This growth was driven by state agrarian policies and agricultural support measures aimed at increasing sown areas and wheat production, which boosted domestic output. Simultaneously, high import volumes from Kazakhstan, the main supplier, sustained overall market volume.

The market then contracted to 1 845 тыс. т in 2020 and 1 759 тыс. т in 2021. In 2020, despite an 8.8% increase in total agricultural production, logistical complexities linked to the COVID-19 pandemic led to a drop in imports. The following year, while sown area expansion and continued state support contributed to a slight rise in production, import supplies decreased, likely due to persistent logistics challenges and the impact of migrant remittances on purchasing power.

A sharp recovery followed in 2022, with the market reaching 1 929 тыс. т. Wheat production grew by 5.3% as a result of expanded sown areas and improved agro-technologies, and imports from Kazakhstan remained stable despite temporary export quotas imposed by Kazakhstan. Geopolitical factors, including the conflict in Ukraine, affected global prices and availability but did not prevent Tajikistan from securing necessary grain. In 2023, the market slightly declined to 1 884 тыс. т as production fell amid global logistical hurdles and rising costs, even though import volumes increased and sown area expanded further.

Production wheat and meslin in Tajikistan

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of wheat and meslin, 2017-2020

World map of production of wheat and meslin, 2017-2020

Tajikistan's wheat and meslin production has increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, the country produced 846.0 thousand tons, marking a 1.1% rise from 2019. Looking at the broader period from 2017 to 2020, production overall decreased by 6%, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.0%. The lowest production level was in 2018 at 779.0 thousand tons, which saw the largest decline of 13.4%. In contrast, 2019 experienced the biggest increase at 7.4%.

Annual dynamics of production in Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports wheat and meslin from Tajikistan

Market research indicates that Tajikistan did not export any wheat or meslin between 2017 and 2020.

Imports wheat and meslin to Tajikistan

Imports in kind, K t

Imports of wheat and meslin into Tajikistan showed significant fluctuations from 2017 to 2020. The lowest point was in 2017, while imports peaked in 2019, with a 1.9-fold difference between these years. In 2020, imports totaled 999 thousand tons, an 8.4% decrease from the previous year. The highest volume was recorded in 2019 at 1 090 thousand tons, and the largest increase occurred in 2018, rising by 77.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Kazakhstan was the dominant supplier of wheat and meslin to Tajikistan, accounting for 97.0% of total imports in volume.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Tajikistan's wheat and meslin imports have grown in value for the third year in a row. In 2020, imports reached 243.2 million US dollars, a 9.2% increase from 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, import value surged by 128.6%, translating to an annualized growth rate of 31.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Tajikistan in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, Tajikistan's reliance on Kazakhstan was evident, as this market represented 96.7% of the total import value for wheat and meslin.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Tajikistan in value, 2017-2020