Wheat and meslin market in Libya

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2019, Libya's wheat and meslin market maintained volumes above 1.4 million tonnes, reliant on large-scale imports to cover domestic demand due to limited local production. The market dipped to 1.3 million tonnes by 2020 amid rising flour prices and bakers' calls for fixed bread prices, signaling supply chain strains.

A severe contraction occurred in 2022, with the market volume halving to 749 thousand tonnes. Supply disruptions from the war in Ukraine led to sharp price increases and halted wheat shipments to some regions. Concurrently, the government removed bread subsidies and established a pricing committee, further restricting accessibility. The market shrank further to 662 thousand tonnes in 2023 after the collapse of the Derna dam reduced irrigated land and local grain output, deepening import dependence.

By 2024, domestic wheat production remained around 90 thousand tonnes against an annual requirement of 1.6 million tonnes. Authorities intensified efforts to document strategic wheat reserves through a central database and ordered price caps on baking materials, aiming to stabilize the market amid a persistent supply gap.

Production wheat and meslin in Libya

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of wheat and meslin, 2017-2020

World map of production of wheat and meslin, 2017-2020

Libya's wheat and meslin production has declined for two consecutive years. In 2019, production stood at 140.0 K t, but by 2020 it had dropped to 130.0 K t, marking a 7.1% decrease. Over the 2017-2020 period, production fell by 7.1%, with an average annual decline of 2.4%. The highest production level was recorded in 2018 at 200.0 K t, which represented a 42.9% increase from the previous year. However, 2019 saw the sharpest drop of 30.0%.

Annual dynamics of production in Libya in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports wheat and meslin from Libya

Exports in kind, K t

In 2020, Libya exported 1 K t of wheat and meslin, showing only minimal change from the previous year. Looking at the broader 2017-2020 period, exports plummeted by 95.9%, which translates to an average annual decline of 65.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Libya in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Italy dominated Libya's wheat and meslin exports in volume terms, accounting for 83.3% of total shipments. All other markets combined made up the remaining share.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Libya in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Libya's wheat and meslin exports reached 0.2 M $ US in 2020, showing little change from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, export value declined sharply by 94.7%, equivalent to an average annual decrease of 62.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Libya in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

During 2017-2020, Italy was the primary destination for Libya's wheat and meslin exports in value terms, representing 83.0% of total export value. Other markets collectively accounted for the remainder.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Libya in value, 2017-2020

Imports wheat and meslin to Libya

Imports in kind, K t

Libya's wheat and meslin imports have declined for two consecutive years. In 2019, imports stood at 1 294 K t, but by 2020 they had decreased to 1 140 K t, representing an 11.9% drop. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports fell by 6.3%, with an average annual decline of 2.1%. The peak import volume occurred in 2018 at 1 442 K t, which was an 18.6% increase from the previous year.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Libya in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Ukraine, Russia, and Romania were Libya's main sources for wheat and meslin imports in volume terms. Ukraine accounted for 41.9% of imports, Russia for 20.0%, and Romania for 15.0%. Together, these three countries represented 77.0% of Libya's total import volume.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Libya in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Libya's wheat and meslin import value has declined for two consecutive years. In 2019, imports were valued at 267.0 M $ US, but by 2020 this had dropped to 250.0 M $ US, a 6.4% decrease. Over the 2017-2020 period, import value actually increased by 3.2%, with an average annual growth of 1.0%. The highest import value was recorded in 2018 at 291.1 M $ US, representing a 21.9% increase from the previous year. However, 2019 saw a decline of 9.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Libya in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

During 2017-2020, Ukraine, Russia, and Bulgaria were Libya's primary sources for wheat and meslin imports in value terms. Ukraine accounted for 38.7% of import value, Russia for 19.5%, and Bulgaria for 15.9%. Together, these three countries represented 74.1% of Libya's total import expenditure.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Libya in value, 2017-2020