Wheat and meslin market in Mexico

Earlier Report Observations

The wheat and meslin market in Mexico experienced significant volatility in volume from 2018 to 2023, declining from 7.8 million tons in 2018 to a low of 5.0 million tons in 2022 before rebounding sharply to 8.0 million tons in 2023. This pattern was primarily driven by swings in import levels, which were heavily influenced by international events including the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, while domestic production showed a gradual upward trend over the period.

Early in the period, the market's reliance on imports for approximately 66% of domestic demand made it susceptible to global volatility. The pandemic in 2020 disrupted international grain supply chains and affected prices, contributing to lower import volumes. The geopolitical tensions and outbreak of war in Ukraine further exacerbated this volatility in 2021-2022, leading to a sharp contraction in wheat imports and a corresponding drop in total market volume. Concurrently, the implementation of the new front-of-pack warning labeling system (NOM-051) began altering consumer purchasing behavior and prompted manufacturers to reformulate products.

Domestic production increased from 2.9 million tons in 2018 to 3.6 million tons in 2022, supported by a recovery from earlier low prices and a continued focus on sustainable agricultural practices in key producing states. Regulatory developments, including modifications to the NOM-187 standard for corn and wheat products, emphasized greater transparency and traceability. The warning label regime continued to shape the market in 2023, a year when population growth and shifting dietary habits, alongside favorable government policies for agriculture, stimulated demand and drove a large increase in imports to meet it. In 2024, global factors such as the ongoing war in Ukraine and adverse weather conditions in major producing countries continued to influence price volatility and indirectly affected the Mexican market.

Production wheat and meslin in Mexico

In kind, 2018-2021, K t

Top producers of wheat and meslin, 2018-2021

World map of production of wheat and meslin, 2018-2021

In 2021, Mexico produced 3 284 K t of wheat and meslin, marking a moderate 9.9% increase compared to 2020. Over the 2018-2021 period, production grew by 11.6%, with an average annual growth rate of 3.7%. The largest decline occurred in 2020 at 7.9%, while the most significant increase was recorded in 2019 at 10.2%.

Annual dynamics of production in Mexico in kind, 2018-2021, K t

Exports wheat and meslin from Mexico

Exports in kind, K t

The data shows irregular changes, reflecting a volatile market environment. Export volumes varied significantly, with a 2.6-fold difference between the low in 2020 and the high in 2019. In 2020, Mexico's cross-border shipments of wheat and meslin stood at 309 K t, representing an abrupt 61.3% decline from the previous year. The maximum value was recorded in 2019 at 798 K t, with the largest increase that year at 45.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Mexico in kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, Venezuela (40.1% of exports in kind), Turkey (34.4% of exports in kind), and Algeria (19.8% of exports in kind) formed the key group of partners for Mexico's wheat and meslin exports, jointly representing 94.3% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Mexico in kind, 2018-2021

Exports in value, M $ US

The data reveals irregular changes, indicating a volatile market environment. Exports peaked in 2019 and reached their lowest point in 2020, with a 2.3-fold gap between these years. In 2020, Mexico's wheat and meslin export volume amounted to 82 M $ US, marking a sudden 55.9% decline relative to the prior year. The maximum value was recorded in 2019 at 186 M $ US, with the largest increase that year at 42.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Mexico in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Over the 2018-2021 period, Venezuela (39.8% of exports in value terms), Turkey (33.3% of exports in value terms), and Algeria (21.3% of exports in value terms) were the primary buyers of wheat and meslin from Mexico, jointly accounting for 94.5% of total exports in value terms.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Mexico in value, 2018-2021

Imports wheat and meslin to Mexico

Imports in kind, K t

Wheat and meslin shipments to Mexico from abroad declined for the third consecutive year. In 2021, Mexico imported approximately 1 830 K t of wheat and meslin, which is 58.3% lower compared to 2020. Over the 2018-2021 period, imports decreased by 65.9%, with an average annual decline of 30.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Mexico in kind, 2018-2021, K t

Throughout 2018-2021, the partner structure for imports in kind was centered on the United States, whose share amounted to 70.7% of total flows, while other markets formed a less significant perimeter.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Mexico in kind, 2018-2021

Imports in value, M $ US

Cross-border shipments of wheat and meslin to Mexico declined for the third consecutive year. In 2021, import volume amounted to 585 M $ US, down by 44.8% year-over-year. Between 2018 and 2021, imports decreased by 49.8%, equating to an annualized rate of 20.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Mexico in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

From 2018 to 2021, the United States was the principal market for wheat and meslin to Mexico, accounting for 71.7% of total imports in value terms, while other destinations formed a less significant tail.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Mexico in value, 2018-2021