Semi-milled or wholly milled rice market in Kenya

Earlier Report Observations

The market for semi-milled or wholly milled rice in Kenya grew from 662.1 thousand tonnes in 2018 to 702.9 thousand tonnes in 2020. This expansion was initially supported by the government's focus on food security, which included targets for increased rice production as part of its development agenda. However, from 2020 onward, government reforms that reduced fertilizer consumption introduced a potential constraint on agricultural output.

Market volume continued its upward trend, reaching 758.3 thousand tonnes by 2022. During this period, domestic production fell, but high national demand—with per capita consumption estimated at 20.6 kg per year—kept the market growing, sustained by significant imports that covered around 80% of the country's needs. The state consistently called for increased local production to reduce this import dependency.

A major surge occurred in 2023, with the market size exceeding 1 million tonnes. This jump was accompanied by a 22% increase in the paddy rice harvest and the government launch of the high-yielding 'Komboka' rice variety, developed by KALRO, specifically aimed at boosting local production. Despite these efforts, Kenya's reliance on imported milled rice remained above 80%, with cheap Asian imports continuing to affect local producers, while the National Rice Development Strategy worked toward long-term self-sufficiency.

Production semi-milled or wholly milled rice in Kenya

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of semi-milled or wholly milled rice, 2017-2020

World map of production of semi-milled or wholly milled rice, 2017-2020

Kenya's production of semi-milled or wholly milled rice has grown for the third year in a row. In 2020, the country produced 120.9 thousand tonnes, marking a 14.1% increase from 2019. Looking at the period from 2017 to 2020, production rose by 53.1%, with an average annual growth rate of 15.2%.

Annual dynamics of production in Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports semi-milled or wholly milled rice from Kenya

Exports in kind, K t

Export volumes showed significant volatility during these years. They reached their lowest point in 2017 and peaked in 2019, with a 4.6-fold difference between these extremes. In 2020, Kenya exported 0.1 thousand tonnes of semi-milled or wholly milled rice, representing a sharp decline of 73.0% from the previous year. The highest export volume was recorded in 2019 at 0.5 thousand tonnes, while the largest year-on-year increase occurred in 2018, at 225.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Vietnam, Rwanda, and South Sudan were the primary destinations for Kenya's semi-milled or wholly milled rice exports by volume. Vietnam accounted for 44.7% of exports, Rwanda for 16.9%, and South Sudan for 14.1%. Together, these three markets made up 75.6% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Kenya in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Export values also exhibited volatility over the observed period. They hit a low in 2017 and a high in 2018, with an 11.7-fold difference between these years. In 2020, Kenya exported 0.1 million US dollars' worth of semi-milled or wholly milled rice, indicating a sharp decrease of 28.8% compared to 2019. The peak value was recorded in 2018 at 0.7 million US dollars. The largest decline occurred in 2019, at 86.4%, while the most significant increase was in 2018, at 1 071.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kenya in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Tanzania, Rwanda, and South Sudan were the key partners for Kenya's semi-milled or wholly milled rice exports by value. Tanzania led with 62.9% of exports, followed by Rwanda at 10.8% and South Sudan at 9.0%. Collectively, these three countries accounted for 82.7% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Kenya in value, 2017-2020

Imports semi-milled or wholly milled rice to Kenya

Imports in kind, K t

In 2020, Kenya imported 582.1 thousand tonnes of semi-milled or wholly milled rice, a decrease of 3.1% from the previous year. The highest import volume was recorded in 2019 at 600.5 thousand tonnes, which also saw the largest year-on-year increase of 3.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Between 2017 and 2020, Pakistan and Thailand dominated Kenya's imports of semi-milled or wholly milled rice by volume, together accounting for 85.7% of total flows. The remaining share was distributed among other countries.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Kenya in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

The value of Kenya's semi-milled or wholly milled rice imports fell for the second consecutive year. In 2020, imports totaled 240.3 million US dollars, down 0.8% from 2019. The highest value was recorded in 2018 at 245.6 million US dollars. The largest decline occurred in 2019, at 1.3%, while the most notable increase was in 2018, at 0.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kenya in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Pakistan and Thailand were the leading sources for Kenya's semi-milled or wholly milled rice imports by value, jointly holding 81.4% of total flows. The remainder was spread across other countries.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Kenya in value, 2017-2020