Maize market in Kenya

Earlier Report Observations

In 2018, the Kenyan government introduced a minimum maize price of KSh 2 500 per 90-kg bag and announced a purchase price of KSh 3 200, supporting farmer incomes and contributing to a high production volume of 4 014 thousand tonnes. However, delays in commercializing genetically modified maize in 2019 created regulatory bottlenecks, coinciding with a drop in production to 3 582 thousand tonnes and a contraction of the market size to 3 805 thousand tonnes.

The state's removal of its price-fixing role in 2020, shifting to market-based pricing with a KSh 2 500 minimum, likely aided the market's recovery to 4 053 thousand tonnes. In the following years, the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) actively influenced the market by raising its purchase prices: to KSh 3 200 in 2021 and to KSh 5 600 in both 2022 and 2023. These increases, aimed at bolstering farmer returns, coincided with a significant production rebound to 4 285 thousand tonnes and market expansion to 4 788 thousand tonnes by 2023.

By 2024, a waiver on import duties for 500 000 tonnes of yellow maize and record maize production drove down retail flour prices, while the NCPB maintained its purchase price at KSh 4 000 per bag, stabilizing conditions for farmers.

Production maize in Kenya

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Kenya ranked 30th globally in maize production.

Top producers of maize, 2017-2020

World map of production of maize, 2017-2020

In 2020, Kenya produced 3 789 thousand tonnes of maize, marking a 5.8% increase from the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production grew by 18.9%, which translates to an annualized growth rate of 5.9%. The highest production level was recorded in 2018 at 4 014 thousand tonnes, with the largest annual increase of 26.0% occurring that year. In contrast, 2019 saw the most significant decline, with production dropping by 10.8%.

Annual dynamics of production in Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports maize from Kenya

Exports in kind, K t

The export market for maize showed an unstable trend during this period. Exports reached their lowest point in 2019 at 4 thousand tonnes and peaked in 2018 at 7 thousand tonnes, representing a 1.7-fold difference between these years. In 2020, Kenya's maize exports amounted to 7 thousand tonnes, reflecting a substantial increase of 70.4% compared to 2019. The largest decline occurred in 2019, with a drop of 42.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Between 2017 and 2020, Rwanda and Uganda were the dominant destinations for Kenya's maize exports in volume terms, together accounting for 84.8% of total flows, while other countries contributed smaller individual shares.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Kenya in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

The export market in value terms exhibited an unstable trend throughout the timeframe. Exports hit a low in 2018 at 6.4 million US dollars and reached a high in 2020 at 12.1 million US dollars, showing a 1.9-fold variation. In 2020, Kenya's maize exports were valued at 12.1 million US dollars, corresponding to an 86.8% year-over-year increase. The largest decline was recorded in 2018, with a decrease of 19.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kenya in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Rwanda and Uganda were the primary buyers of Kenyan maize in value terms, together accounting for 83.8% of total exports, with other destinations each holding relatively small shares.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Kenya in value, 2017-2020

Imports maize to Kenya

Imports in kind, K t

After a two-year decline, foreign maize supplies to Kenya increased. In 2020, Kenya imported approximately 271 thousand tonnes of maize, which is 19.3% higher than the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports decreased by 79.6%, with a compound annual growth rate of -41.1%. The lowest import volume was recorded in 2019 at 228 thousand tonnes, and the largest decline occurred in 2018 with a drop of 60.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Between 2017 and 2020, Mexico (28.4% of imports in volume), Uganda (21.3% of imports in volume), and Tanzania (17.1% of imports in volume) stood out as the main sources for Kenya's maize imports, together representing 66.7% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Kenya in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

After a two-year fall, maize shipments to Kenya from abroad increased. In 2020, imports amounted to 68.8 million US dollars, corresponding to a substantial rise of 13.4% compared to 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, imports decreased by 82.3%, equating to an annualized rate of -43.9%. The minimum value was recorded in 2019 at 60.7 million US dollars, and the largest decline occurred in 2018 with a decrease of 69.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kenya in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Mexico (32.2% of imports in value terms), Uganda (16.9% of imports in value terms), and Zambia (13.9% of imports in value terms) together absorbed 63.0% of total maize imports to Kenya in value terms, making them the main sources.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Kenya in value, 2017-2020