Paddy rice market in Kenya

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2021, Kenya's paddy rice market volume grew steadily from 107.3 thousand tons to 217.1 thousand tons. This expansion was primarily driven by a progressive change in eating habits, with rice consumption rising at 12% annually, and the launch of a government 10-year programme in 2020 to promote rice consumption and reduce reliance on maize. The period also saw the emergence of contract farming initiatives by private companies like Capwell Industries, which provided farmers with seeds and a guaranteed market, alongside the ongoing adoption of mechanized agriculture and improved farming techniques that enhanced production capabilities.

In 2022, market volume contracted to 193.8 thousand tons. This decline was largely due to a sharp drop in imports, which fell from 31.1 thousand tons in 2021 to 1.5 thousand tons, following the imposition of government import levies on cereals that increased costs for importers. Although domestic production continued to grow, supported by expanded irrigation systems and the introduction of high-yielding upland rice varieties, the reduction in imported supply led to an overall smaller market.

The market rebounded in 2023, reaching 229.2 thousand tons. This recovery was fueled by a 22% increase in paddy production, attributed to the development of new rice schemes, increased acreage, and sustained investment in irrigation infrastructure. Government measures, including a guarantee to purchase and pay for all locally offered paddy rice within 30 days through entities like the Kenya National Trading Corporation and the National Cereals and Produce Board, provided crucial support to farmers and stabilized supply.

Production paddy rice in Kenya

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of paddy rice, 2017-2020

World map of production of paddy rice, 2017-2020

Kenya's paddy rice production has grown for the third year in a row. In 2020, the country produced 180.9 thousand tons of paddy rice, marking a significant 12.6% increase compared to 2019. Looking at the period from 2017 to 2020, production surged by 122.8%, which translates to an average annual growth rate of 30.6%.

Annual dynamics of production in Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports paddy rice from Kenya

Exports in kind, t

The export market for paddy rice in Kenya showed notable fluctuations during this period. In 2019, exports hit their lowest point at 16 tons, while the peak was reached in 2018 with 5 311 tons, representing a 333-fold difference between these years. In 2020, Kenya's paddy rice export volume totaled 21 tons, reflecting a 34.5% year-on-year increase. The largest decline occurred in 2019, dropping by 99.7%, whereas the largest increase was recorded in 2018, soaring by 466.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Kenya's paddy rice exports in kind were highly concentrated, with Uganda accounting for 99.3% of the total flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Kenya in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

The export market in value terms displayed an unstable trend over the timeframe. In 2019, exports dropped to a minimum of 6 thousand US dollars, while the maximum was reached in 2018 at 1 116 thousand US dollars, showing a 196-fold shift. In 2020, paddy rice exports in Kenya amounted to 61 thousand US dollars, indicating a steep rise of 965.7% compared to 2019. The largest decline was recorded in 2019, falling by 99.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kenya in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

During 2017–2020, Kenya's paddy rice exports in value terms were almost entirely concentrated in Uganda, which held a 95.0% share.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Kenya in value, 2017-2020

Imports paddy rice to Kenya

Imports in kind, t

The import data reveals irregular changes, pointing to a volatile market environment. In 2018, imports were at their minimum of 1 ton, while the maximum occurred in 2020 with 16 455 tons, resulting in a 24 857-fold variation. In 2020, Kenya's paddy rice import volume reached 16 455 tons, equivalent to a 1 713.0% increase relative to the prior year. The largest decline was recorded in 2018, decreasing by 96.7%, and the largest increase was in 2019, jumping by 137 002.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, t

Over the period from 2017 to 2020, paddy rice imports to Kenya were largely oriented towards Tanzania, which accounted for 99.7% of total imports in kind.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Kenya in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

The import market in value terms exhibited an unstable trend throughout the timeframe. In 2018, imports bottomed at 2 thousand US dollars, while they peaked in 2020 at 4 641 thousand US dollars, differing by a factor of 2 083. In 2020, paddy rice imports in Kenya totaled 4 641 thousand US dollars, reflecting a steep advance of 1 495.5% over the past year. The largest decline was recorded in 2018, falling by 97.8%, and the largest increase occurred in 2019, surging by 12 953.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kenya in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, paddy rice imports to Kenya were shipped mainly to Tanzania, which absorbed 96.7% of total imports in value terms.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Kenya in value, 2017-2020