Pastry market in Northern Europe

Earlier Report Observations

Between 2018 and 2019, the pastry market in Northern Europe expanded significantly, with volume rising from 1.3 million t to 1.6 million t and value jumping from 7.1 billion US dollars to 9.3 billion US dollars. This upward trajectory was interrupted in 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic fundamentally altered the industry, causing a contraction to 1.4 million t in volume and 7.4 billion US dollars in value as consumer habits and supply chains were disrupted.

The market began to recover in 2021, reaching 1.5 million t and 7.9 billion US dollars. A major growth phase followed in 2022, fueled by increased consumer demand for plant-based and vegan pastry products, which pushed volume to 1.8 million t and value to 8.8 billion US dollars. In 2023, volume growth stabilized near 1.8 million t, but the market's value rose substantially to 10.0 billion US dollars, supported by continued consumer interest in functional, sustainable offerings and more efficient, authentic marketing strategies that emerged from the pandemic.

Entering 2024, the market environment is characterized by a strong focus on quality, health functionality, and sustainability, including gut-friendly products. Digitalization and AI are playing a larger role in marketing and customer engagement, while major grocery retailers continue to shape the competitive landscape amid ongoing economic uncertainty that prioritizes value without sacrificing core quality demands.

Production pastry in Northern Europe

In kind, 2017-2020, t

Top producers of pastry, 2017-2020

World map of production of pastry, 2017-2020

In Northern Europe, pastry production reached 781,975 tonnes in 2020, marking a 29.6% decrease from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, production declined by 3.2%, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.1%. The highest production volume was recorded in 2019 at 1,110,033 tonnes, which also saw the largest annual increase of 39.8%.

Annual dynamics of production in Northern Europe in kind, 2017-2020, t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Following two years of growth, pastry production in Northern Europe experienced a decline. In 2020, the output was valued at 5,321 million US dollars, representing a 27.3% drop compared to 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, production increased by 7.9%, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.6%. The peak value occurred in 2019 at 7,320 million US dollars, which also recorded the largest annual increase of 41.2%.

Annual dynamics of production in Northern Europe in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports pastry from Northern Europe

Exports in kind, K t

After two consecutive years of growth, pastry exports from Northern Europe declined. In 2020, exports totaled 479,000 tonnes, reflecting a sharp decrease of 27.3% from the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, exports grew by 27.8%, equivalent to an annualized rate of 8.5%. The highest export volume was in 2019 at 659,000 tonnes, while the largest annual increase occurred in 2018 at 47.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Northern Europe in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, pastry exports from Northern Europe were not concentrated on a few key markets. Norway accounted for 6.8% of exports, Germany for 6.7%, and France for 4.9%, with these three countries together representing only 18.5% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Northern Europe in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Pastry exports from Northern Europe increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, exports were valued at 1,937 million US dollars, showing no significant change from 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, exports grew by 19%, equating to an annualized rate of 6.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Northern Europe in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

During 2017-2020, the partner structure for pastry exports in value terms was balanced rather than concentrated. Norway represented 7.6% of exports, Germany 7.0%, and France 5.2%, with these three countries together accounting for 19.8% of total flows, while many other countries made up the remaining 80.2%.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Northern Europe in value, 2017-2020

Imports pastry to Northern Europe

Imports in kind, K t

Pastry imports into Northern Europe increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, imports amounted to [value_last_year] thousand tonnes, with only a marginal fluctuation compared to 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports grew by 11.6%, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Northern Europe in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Data from 2017 to 2020 indicate that pastry imports into Northern Europe were not concentrated on a few key sources. Germany accounted for 18.8% of imports, France for 13.3%, and Belgium for 8.3%, with these three countries together representing 40.4% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Northern Europe in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Pastry imports into Northern Europe increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, imports were valued at 3,984 million US dollars, equivalent to a 1.5% uptick compared to 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports grew by 17.7%, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Northern Europe in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

The country composition of pastry imports in value terms from 2017 to 2020 was dispersed. Germany accounted for 17.5% of imports, France for 13.8%, and Belgium for 9.1%, with these three countries together forming just 40.4% of total flows, while the remaining 59.6% was split among a wide range of other destinations.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Northern Europe in value, 2017-2020