Bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares market in Northern Europe, 2026

Earlier Report Observations

The market volume for bakery products in Northern Europe was 1 565 thousand tons in 2018. It decreased to 1 477 thousand tons in 2019, but rebounded to 1 648 thousand tons in 2020. This recovery was primarily driven by the COVID-19 pandemic, which significantly altered consumer behavior, increasing demand for fresh bakery items and new taste experiences as home consumption rose during lockdowns.

Market expansion continued after the pandemic, reaching 1 709 thousand tons in 2021. Growth accelerated sharply to 2 118 thousand tons in 2022 and 2 166 thousand tons in 2023. This was sustained by ongoing shifts in consumer preferences, including a strong focus on healthy and functional products like sourdough bread, alongside rising interest in convenient, long-lasting and frozen bakery goods that offered both freshness and helped reduce food waste.

By 2024, industry evolution emphasized quality, authenticity, and sustainability. New players such as Bake My Day entered the market, combining traditional craftsmanship with modern production methods. Consumer trends shifted towards gut-healthy ingredients, innovative flavors, and greater product traceability, reflected in the use of batch numbering on packaging.

Production bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares in Northern Europe

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares, 2017-2020

World map of production of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares, 2017-2020

Northern Europe's production of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares has declined for the third year in a row. In 2020, the region produced 910.6 K t of these goods, marking a slight decrease of 2.1% compared to 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production fell by 4.8%, with an average annual decline of 1.6%.

Annual dynamics of production in Northern Europe in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Following a two-year downturn, Northern Europe's production of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares rebounded in value terms. In 2020, the output was valued at 3 541 M $ US, reflecting a significant increase of 21.9% from 2019. However, over the 2017-2020 period, production value decreased by 8.1%, with an average annual decline of 2.8%. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 2 905 M $ US, which also saw the largest drop of 14.8%.

Annual dynamics of production in Northern Europe in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares from Northern Europe

Exports in kind, K t

After two years of growth, Northern Europe's exports of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares declined in volume. In 2020, the region exported 760 K t of these goods, indicating a sharp year-over-year decrease of 19.8%. Despite this, exports increased by 12.2% between 2017 and 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 3.9%. The peak volume was reached in 2019 at 948 K t, which also experienced the largest increase of 19.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Northern Europe in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Northern Europe's exports of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares were widely distributed across partner countries. Norway and Germany each accounted for 7.0% of exports in kind, while France represented 4.5%. Together, these three countries made up only 18.5% of total export flows, highlighting the diversity of destinations.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Northern Europe in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Following a two-year upward trend, the value of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares exported from Northern Europe declined. In 2020, exports totaled 2 956 M $ US, remaining largely stable compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, export value increased by 8.4%, with an average annual growth rate of 2.7%. The highest value was recorded in 2019 at 2 962 M $ US, while the largest increase occurred in 2018 at 5.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Northern Europe in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

During 2017–2020, key buyers of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares from Northern Europe included Norway (7.1% of export value), Germany (6.8%), and the United States (5.4%). However, their combined share reached only 19.3% of total export value, with the remaining 80.7% spread across numerous other partners.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Northern Europe in value, 2017-2020

Imports bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares to Northern Europe

Imports in kind, K t

Northern Europe's imports of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares have increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the region imported 1 497 K t of these goods, showing minimal change from the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, imports grew by 9.7%, equating to an average annual increase of 3.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Northern Europe in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, the largest suppliers of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares to Northern Europe in volume terms were Germany (17.7% of imports in kind), France (10.9%), and the Netherlands (8.5%). Together, they accounted for 37.1% of total imports, while a wide range of smaller partners made up the rest.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Northern Europe in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Northern Europe's imports of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares have risen for the third year in a row in value terms. In 2020, import value reached 5 373 M $ US, up by 1.9% year-over-year. Between 2017 and 2020, imports increased by 14.2%, with an average annual growth rate of 4.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Northern Europe in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

In 2017–2020, bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares were imported into Northern Europe from a broad set of markets. Germany accounted for 16.7% of import value, France for 11.1%, and the Netherlands for 8.8%. Together, these three suppliers represented only 36.6% of total import value, with the remaining 63.4% coming from many smaller destinations.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Northern Europe in value, 2017-2020