Orange juice market in Caribbean

Earlier Report Observations

The Caribbean market for unfermented orange juice, measured in value, saw moderate growth in 2019 but contracted sharply in 2020 to $38.0 million, down 21% from the previous year. This decline coincided with a large Brazilian orange harvest and an underlying trend of decreasing consumption, which pushed down global prices for orange juice concentrate and reduced the overall market value.

Market value rebounded in 2021 and then expanded rapidly, reaching $63.5 million in 2022 and $74.4 million in 2023. The surge in 2023 was primarily driven by a worldwide shortage of orange concentrate, caused by a decade-long decline in U.S. production, which fell to just 16 million boxes in the 2022/2023 season. Additionally, juice producers shifted their focus toward more lucrative not-from-concentrate juice, implementing delivery quotas to manage demand that exceeded available supply, further tightening the market and supporting higher prices.

Entering 2024, the market continued to face supply constraints. The spread of citrus greening disease ('yellow dragon') significantly reduced orange yields in Florida and Brazil, the world's main suppliers, leading to sustained high juice prices. Simultaneously, Egypt reduced its export subsidies and prioritized local processing, while expanding its citrus cultivation and cold storage infrastructure. A forecasted 24% drop in the Brazilian 2024-2025 harvest pointed to ongoing scarcity, maintaining upward pressure on costs for the Caribbean market.

Production orange juice in Caribbean

In kind, 2017-2020, K l

Top producers of orange juice, 2017-2020

World map of production of orange juice, 2017-2020

Caribbean's orange juice production volume declined for the third consecutive year. In 2020, production reached 2 802 K liters, marking a 26.7% decrease compared to 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production fell by 37.8%, with an annualized decline rate of 14.6%.

Annual dynamics of production in Caribbean in kind, 2017-2020, K l

In value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Caribbean's orange juice production declined for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the output was valued at 3 384 K US dollars, reflecting an abrupt 30.6% drop compared to 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, production decreased by 42.3%, equating to an annualized rate of 16.7%.

Annual dynamics of production in Caribbean in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Exports orange juice from Caribbean

Exports in kind, M l

After a two-year rise, Caribbean's orange juice exports declined. In 2020, exports totaled 5.8 M liters, which is 13.5% lower than the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, exports decreased by 2.5%, with an annualized decline rate of 0.8%. The maximum volume was recorded in 2019 at 6.7 M liters, following the largest increase of 9.8% that same year.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Caribbean in kind, 2017-2020, M l

From 2017 to 2020, the United States, Guyana, and Suriname were the largest buyers of orange juice from the Caribbean, though no single country dominated. The United States accounted for 25.9% of exports in kind, Guyana for 12.6%, and Suriname for 4.9%, together making up 43.4% of total exports, with many smaller partners contributing the remainder.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Caribbean in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

After a two-year uptick, orange juice exports from the Caribbean declined. In 2020, exports amounted to 6 951 K US dollars, down by 18.1% compared to the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, exports decreased by 9.6%, with an annualized decline rate of 3.3%. The maximum value was recorded in 2019 at 8 487 K US dollars, following the largest increase of 8.3% in 2018.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Caribbean in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, there was no single dominant market for orange juice exports in value terms. The United States accounted for 20.5% of exports, Guyana for 11.2%, and Suriname for 6.0%, together taking 37.7% of total exports, while many smaller partners each held modest individual shares.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Caribbean in value, 2017-2020

Imports orange juice to Caribbean

Imports in kind, M l

There were noticeable fluctuations in orange juice imports to the Caribbean during this period. The minimum volume was recorded in 2018 at 76.7 M liters, with the largest decline of 66.7% that year. In 2019, imports saw the largest increase of 300.8%, and in 2020, they reached 396.6 M liters, which is 29.1% higher than in 2019. Overall, imports varied by 5.2 times between the peak in 2020 and the trough in 2018.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Caribbean in kind, 2017-2020, M l

Throughout 2017 to 2020, Belize played a dominant role in orange juice imports to the Caribbean, consistently accounting for 91.9% of total imports in kind.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Caribbean in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

Caribbean imported approximately 41 559 K US dollars of orange juice in 2020, down by 19.8% year-over-year. Between 2017 and 2020, imports decreased by 26.3%, equating to an annualized rate of 9.7%. The largest increase was recorded in 2019 at 3.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Caribbean in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, the United States, Belize, and Spain were the leading suppliers of orange juice to the Caribbean in value terms. The United States accounted for 41.9% of imports, Belize for 25.7%, and Spain for 14.1%, jointly taking 81.7% of total imports.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Caribbean in value, 2017-2020