Maize market in SADC

Earlier Report Observations

The SADC maize market began the period with a production decline in 2019, partly due to high carry-over stocks from previous seasons that encouraged farmers to switch to more profitable crops like oilseeds. This was followed by a strong rebound in 2020, when production jumped by 25% to over 38 000 thousand t, supported by good yields and ongoing recommendations to invest in storage, transport, and services across the maize value chain.

Production continued to expand in 2021, reaching over 40 600 thousand t, even as climate change impacts were increasingly recognized. However, the total market volume shrank slightly that year as exports grew. The following year, global surges in fertilizer prices raised production costs, contributing to a 7% drop in output. Simultaneously, cyclone-related damage in Zimbabwe boosted demand for South African maize, lifting exports and further reducing the domestic market volume.

In 2023, higher maize yields drove production up again by nearly 8% to 40 517 thousand t, despite regional rainfall variability that reduced white maize harvests. The market volume responded by growing 11% to 39 033 thousand t, aided by steady demand from neighboring countries. By 2024, market tightness and record prices led South Africa to plan maize imports from the United States for the first time since 2017.

Production maize in SADC

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of maize, 2017-2020

World map of production of maize, 2017-2020

SADC's maize production rebounded in 2020 after two years of decline. In 2019, production hit its lowest point at 30 465 thousand tonnes, but then surged by 25.1% year-on-year to reach 38 102 thousand tonnes in 2020. Over the 2017-2020 period, overall production decreased by 3%, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.0%. The most significant drop occurred in 2018, when production fell by 16.1%.

Annual dynamics of production in SADC in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports maize from SADC

Exports in kind, K t

The maize export market displayed considerable volatility during the observed period. In 2019, exports reached their minimum at 404 thousand tonnes, but then soared by 543.6% to 2 600 thousand tonnes in 2020. The difference between these peak and trough years was 6.4 times. The largest decline was recorded in 2019, when exports fell by 82.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from SADC in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, SADC's maize exports in kind were distributed across a diverse range of trading partners. Japan accounted for 11.6% of exports, while Kenya and Vietnam each contributed 9.1%. Together, these three countries represented just 29.8% of total export flows, with the remaining 70.2% going to numerous other destinations.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from SADC in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

The value of maize exports showed an unstable pattern throughout the timeframe. In 2019, exports reached their lowest point at 358.0 million US dollars, but then increased by 78.6% to 639.4 million US dollars in 2020. The gap between these years was 1.8 times. The largest decline occurred in 2019, when export value dropped by 37.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from SADC in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, SADC's maize exports in value terms were spread across a wide array of partner countries. Kenya accounted for 10.9% of export value, Japan for 8.7%, and Vietnam for 7.8%. Collectively, these three countries represented only 27.3% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from SADC in value, 2017-2020

Imports maize to SADC

Imports in kind, K t

SADC's maize imports in kind increased for the second consecutive year in 2020. After reaching a low of 2 138 thousand tonnes in 2018, imports grew by 64.0% year-on-year to 4 389 thousand tonnes in 2020. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports increased by 68.3%, equivalent to an annualized growth rate of 18.9%. The largest decline was recorded in 2018, when imports fell by 18.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to SADC in kind, 2017-2020, K t

During the 2017-2020 period, maize imports in kind to SADC were relatively evenly distributed among trading partners. Argentina accounted for 21.6% of imports, Ukraine for 5.8%, and the United States for 3.4%. Together, these three countries represented just 30.9% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to SADC in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

SADC's maize imports in value terms rose for the second year in a row in 2020. After falling to 306.1 million US dollars in 2018, import value increased by 41.4% year-on-year to 627.4 million US dollars in 2020. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports grew by 24.1%, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.5%. The largest decline occurred in 2018, when import value dropped by 39.5%, while the largest increase was recorded in 2019, with a 45.0% rise.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to SADC in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, SADC's maize imports in value terms involved a broad range of trading partners. Argentina accounted for 14.6% of import value, the United States for 5.5%, and Mexico for 4.6%. Together, these three countries represented only 24.7% of total import flows, with the remaining 75.3% coming from many other sources.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to SADC in value, 2017-2020