In-shell almonds market in Tajikistan

Earlier Report Observations

The market volume for in-shell almonds in Tajikistan remained relatively stable from 2018 to 2023, fluctuating between 3 130 tons and 3 222 tons. This stability was underpinned by regional developments, including a 27% expansion of almond cultivation areas across CIS countries between 2017 and 2021, with Tajikistan holding a significant share of this acreage. Average almond yields in the region also rose sharply from 13.6 to 39.9 centners per hectare over the same period, enhancing the competitiveness and potential output of Tajik production.

Tajikistan's almond sector is distinguished by its cultivation of the thin-shelled 'бумажноскорлупный' (paper-shell) variety, prized for its sweet taste and easy shelling, which shapes consumer preferences and market segmentation. The country, alongside Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, concentrates the bulk of almond acreage in the CIS, defining regional supply dynamics. State and private initiatives to develop agriculture have further supported incremental gains in planted area and productivity.

Following a period of stabilization in 2019-2020, market volume grew to 3 166 tons in 2021 and peaked at 3 222 tons in 2022, driven by the continued upward trend in regional almond production linked to sustained demand and improved agrotechnical practices. The gross almond harvest in the CIS multiplied 3.7 times from 2017 to 2021, reflecting active industry development. In 2023, the market volume moderated slightly to 3 170 tons, maintaining overall stability within the period.

Production in-shell almonds in Tajikistan

In kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Tajikistan ranked 24th globally in the production of in-shell almonds.

Top producers of in-shell almonds, 2017-2020

World map of production of in-shell almonds, 2017-2020

In-shell almond production in Tajikistan declined for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the country produced 3 140 tonnes, showing no significant change from the previous year.

Annual dynamics of production in Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020, t

Exports in-shell almonds from Tajikistan

Exports in kind, kg

Exports of in-shell almonds from Tajikistan fell for the second year in a row. In 2020, exports totaled 10 900 kg, marking a sharp decline of 16.4% compared to 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports decreased by 15.4%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -5.4%. The highest export volume was recorded in 2018 at 17 147 kg, which saw a 33.0% increase from the previous year. In contrast, 2019 experienced the largest decline of 24.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020, kg

From 2017 to 2020, Kazakhstan was the primary market for Tajikistan's in-shell almond exports, accounting for 87.3% of total shipments. The remaining volume was distributed among various other destinations.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, $ US

In 2020, Tajikistan's in-shell almond exports were valued at 3 300 US dollars, a decrease of 37.9% from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, export value fell by 59.1%, with a CAGR of -25.7%. The largest decline occurred in 2018, dropping by 50.7%, while 2019 saw the largest increase of 33.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Tajikistan in value, 2017-2020, $ US

From 2017 to 2020, the top buyers of Tajikistan's in-shell almonds by value were Kazakhstan (46.7% of exports), the United Arab Emirates (31.5%), and Russia (12.7%). Together, these three markets accounted for 91.0% of total export value.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Tajikistan in value, 2017-2020

Imports in-shell almonds to Tajikistan

Imports in kind, kg

The market for in-shell almond imports into Tajikistan showed significant volatility during this period. Imports peaked in 2018 at 7 161 kg and reached their lowest point in 2020 at 800 kg, representing a ninefold difference. In 2020, imports fell by 11.1% compared to the previous year. The largest decline was recorded in 2019 at 87.4%, while 2018 saw the largest increase of 377.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020, kg

From 2017 to 2020, China dominated Tajikistan's in-shell almond imports in volume, making up 78.8% of total flows. Other countries accounted for the remaining share.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Tajikistan in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, $ US

Market performance for in-shell almond imports into Tajikistan exhibited noticeable fluctuations. The value peaked in 2018 at 13 660 US dollars and hit a low in 2019 at 1 690 US dollars, showing an 8.1-fold amplitude. In 2020, imports increased by 7.0% year-over-year to 1 809 US dollars. The largest decline occurred in 2019 at 87.6%, while 2018 saw the largest increase of 203.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Tajikistan in value, 2017-2020, $ US

From 2017 to 2020, China remained the leading partner for Tajikistan's in-shell almond imports by value, holding a 76.9% share of total flows. Other markets contributed to the remainder.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Tajikistan in value, 2017-2020