In-shell almonds market in the United States

Earlier Report Observations

Between 2018 and 2020, the U.S. in-shell almond market experienced significant growth, with production rising from 1.7 million tons to 2.3 million tons and market volume increasing by over 35% to 2.1 million tons. This expansion was supported by a concurrent rise in exports, which grew from 204 000 tons to 296 000 tons, reinforcing the United States' dominant position in global almond trade.

A reversal began in 2021, leading to a contraction in both production and domestic market volume through 2023. Production fell to 1.8 million tons and market volume declined to 1.4 million tons by 2023. This downturn was driven primarily by a multi-year reduction in almond-bearing acreage in California, the key growing region, compounded by persistent drought conditions and rainfall deficits that constrained yields and total output.

Despite the supply-side constraints, underlying consumer demand for almonds remained strong, fueled by health and wellness trends and a shift toward plant-based diets, which spurred growth in product segments like almond milk. Industry adaptation through the introduction of new, more efficient almond varieties and investments in processing infrastructure helped sustain export growth, with shipments reaching 348 000 tons in 2023. Evolving regulatory landscapes, such as new country-of-origin labeling rules in key export markets, prompted further adjustments in supply chain strategies.

Production in-shell almonds in the United States

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, the United States held the top position globally in the production of in-shell almonds.

Top producers of in-shell almonds, 2017-2020

World map of production of in-shell almonds, 2017-2020

In-shell almond production in the United States grew for the third year in a row. In 2020, the country produced 2 345 K t of in-shell almonds, marking a 22.6% increase compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, production rose by 36.6%, with an average annual growth rate of 11.0%.

Annual dynamics of production in the United States in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

In 2020, the value of in-shell almond output in the United States was 8 620 M $ US, reflecting a 7.3% decrease year-over-year. From 2017 to 2020, production value increased by 2.1%, with a compound annual growth rate of 0.7%. The lowest value was recorded in 2018 at 8 371 M $ US, while the highest was in 2019 at 9 294 M $ US. The most significant increase occurred in 2019, with a rise of 11.0%.

Annual dynamics of production in the United States in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports in-shell almonds from the United States

Exports in kind, K t

In-shell almond exports from the United States increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, exports totaled 295.6 K t, representing a 37.8% increase compared to the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, exports grew by 34.7%, equivalent to an annualized rate of 10.4%. The lowest export volume was recorded in 2018 at 204.3 K t, which also saw the largest decline of 6.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from the United States in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, India, Hong Kong, and China were the primary destinations for U.S. in-shell almond exports in volume terms. India accounted for 62.4% of exports, Hong Kong for 11.5%, and China for 5.9%, collectively representing 79.8% of total export volumes.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from the United States in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Cross-border shipments of in-shell almonds from the United States increased for the second year in a row. In 2020, exports were valued at 1 086 M $ US, showing a moderate 4.3% increase year-over-year. The lowest value was recorded in 2018 at 993 M $ US, which also experienced the largest decline of 8.0%. The most significant increase occurred in 2019, with a rise of 4.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from the United States in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Throughout 2017-2020, India, Hong Kong, and Vietnam formed the key group of partners for U.S. in-shell almond exports in value terms. India represented 62.5% of export value, Hong Kong 11.7%, and Vietnam 5.5%, together accounting for 79.7% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from the United States in value, 2017-2020

Imports in-shell almonds to the United States

Imports in kind, K t

The market exhibited volatility during these years. Import levels fluctuated significantly, with a 2.6-fold difference between the low of 2020 and the high of 2019. In 2020, the United States imported 0.5 K t of in-shell almonds, marking a sharp drop of 62.2% compared to the previous year. The highest import volume was recorded in 2019 at 1.3 K t, which also saw the largest increase of 162.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to the United States in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Australia and Spain were the dominant sources for U.S. imports of in-shell almonds in volume terms, jointly accounting for 86.6% of total imports, with other markets making up the remainder.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to the United States in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

The market showed signs of volatility over the observed period. Import values varied widely, with a 2.4-fold difference between the low of 2018 and the high of 2019. In 2020, in-shell almond imports into the United States amounted to 3 M $ US, reflecting an abrupt reduction of 55.4% year-over-year. The lowest value was recorded in 2018 at 3 M $ US, which also experienced the largest decline of 56.8%. The highest value was in 2019 at 7 M $ US, with the largest increase of 144.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to the United States in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Australia and Spain were the dominant suppliers of in-shell almonds to the United States in value terms, together taking 86.2% of total import value, while other partners played a less significant role.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to the United States in value, 2017-2020