Concentrated sweetened milk and cream market in Africa

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2023, the African market for concentrated sweetened milk and cream experienced significant volatility, ranging from 68 000 t to over 95 000 t. The market expanded to 91 066 t in 2019, partly due to global dairy production challenges from climate issues and structural changes, which raised international product prices and increased import costs for South Africa. The COVID-19 pandemic then contributed to a drop in market volume to 67 948 t in 2020, followed by a sharp recovery to 95 081 t in 2021 as lockdown restrictions eased and flavored milk consumption rose, driven by lactose intolerance trends and the return of children to schools.

After peaking in 2021, the market contracted to 71 228 t in 2022 before growing again to 90 454 t in 2023. This recent growth occurred despite a broader decline in retail demand for most dairy products, with prices increasing between 8.6% and 16.8%. During this period, fresh milk factory prices fell while UHT milk prices rose, and milk producers received higher prices. The Milk Producers’ Organisation also launched a consumer information program highlighting the benefits of South African dairy.

Structural shifts continued to shape the market, with severe drought conditions in Eastern and Western Cape reducing producer numbers but increasing milk output per producer by 52% since 2019. Market consolidation intensified due to economic pressures, while consumer preferences moved towards health-conscious, natural, and plant-based products. Retail sales benefited from reduced loadshedding, but consumer spending remained constrained by poor economic growth and high inflation, influencing dairy product prices and market access.

Production concentrated sweetened milk and cream in Africa

In kind, 2017-2020, t

Top producers of concentrated sweetened milk and cream, 2017-2020

World map of production of concentrated sweetened milk and cream, 2017-2020

The market exhibited significant volatility during this period. Production reached its peak in 2018 at 18 864 tonnes, then fell to its lowest point in 2019 at 9 434 tonnes, representing a two-fold difference between these years. In 2020, production in Africa showed a moderate recovery, reaching 9 859 tonnes of concentrated sweetened milk and cream, which was 4.5% higher than the previous year. The most substantial decline occurred in 2019, dropping by 50.0%, while the largest increase was recorded in 2018, surging by 95.4%.

Annual dynamics of production in Africa in kind, 2017-2020, t

Exports concentrated sweetened milk and cream from Africa

Exports in kind, t

Africa's exports of concentrated sweetened milk and cream reached 12 579 tonnes in 2020, marking a significant year-over-year increase of 44.3%. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports grew by 5.5%, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.8%. The lowest export volume was recorded in 2019 at 8 718 tonnes, while the highest was in 2018 at 14 251 tonnes. The most notable decline occurred in 2019, falling by 38.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Africa in kind, 2017-2020, t

Between 2017 and 2020, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates emerged as key buyers of concentrated sweetened milk and cream from Africa, collectively accounting for 1.2% of total exports in volume terms.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

Following a two-year decline, Africa's exports of concentrated sweetened milk and cream in value terms showed a modest recovery. In 2020, exports amounted to 24 057 thousand US dollars, reflecting a slight increase of 3.0% compared to the previous year. However, over the 2017-2020 period, exports decreased by 38.3%, equivalent to an annualized decline of 14.9%. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 23 365 thousand US dollars, with the largest drop occurring in 2018 at 25.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Africa in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar were the two primary destinations for Africa's exports in value terms, each accounting for 0.8% of total flows. Together, they represented 1.6% of total export value.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Africa in value, 2017-2020

Imports concentrated sweetened milk and cream to Africa

Imports in kind, t

After two consecutive years of growth, Africa's imports of concentrated sweetened milk and cream in volume terms declined. In 2020, imports totaled 70 669 tonnes, which was 21.8% lower than the previous year. The highest import volume was recorded in 2019 at 90 350 tonnes, with the largest increase occurring that same year at 26.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Africa in kind, 2017-2020, t

During the 2017-2020 period, Malaysia, the Netherlands, and Spain were the main sources of imports in volume terms for Africa. Malaysia accounted for 36.8% of imports, the Netherlands for 12.7%, and Spain for 5.3%. Together, these three countries represented 54.9% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

In 2020, Africa's imports of concentrated sweetened milk and cream in value terms totaled 81 112 thousand US dollars, showing a substantial year-over-year decline of 15.9%. The peak value was recorded in 2019 at 96 395 thousand US dollars, with the largest increase occurring that year at 17.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Africa in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Over the 2017-2020 period, imports in value terms were relatively diversified. Malaysia was the largest source, accounting for 27.2% of imports, followed by the Netherlands at 10.7% and Spain at 10.4%. Collectively, these three countries represented 48.3% of total import value.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Africa in value, 2017-2020