Milk powder with fat content of ≤1.5% market in Africa

Earlier Report Observations

The market for milk powder with fat content of ≤1.5% in Africa experienced notable volume swings from 2018 to 2023. Consumption started at 409 thousand tonnes in 2018, dipped to 379 thousand tonnes in 2019, then surged by 24% to 470 thousand tonnes in 2020. It fell back to 386 thousand tonnes in 2021, recovered to 408 thousand tonnes in 2022, and stabilized at 407 thousand tonnes in 2023.

The flat volume in 2023 coincided with the implementation of new dairy legislation in South Africa that reclassified milk fat categories. The change moved products with 1.5%–2.5% fat from 'low fat' to 'medium fat', altering labeling rules and consumer information for dairy items including milk powder. This regulatory update, supported by the Dairy Standard Agency's quality initiatives, likely contributed to the market's stability as industry participants adjusted to the new standards.

In 2024, import volumes increased to 462 thousand tonnes while exports dropped to 7 thousand tonnes, pointing to higher net availability of milk powder. Regulatory evolution continued with the Agricultural Products Standard Act Amendment 2023 taking effect in August 2024, shaping product standards in South Africa. At the same time, discussions on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) highlighted regional trade policy factors that may have facilitated cross-border flows of dairy products.

Production milk powder with fat content of ≤1.5% in Africa

In kind, 2017-2020, t

Top producers of milk powder with fat content of ≤1.5%, 2017-2020

World map of production of milk powder with fat content of ≤1.5%, 2017-2020

In 2019, Africa produced 10,291 tonnes of milk powder with a fat content of ≤1.5%, marking the lowest output in recent years. Production then rebounded in 2020 to 11,806 tonnes, representing a 14.7% increase from the previous year. Looking at the broader period from 2017 to 2020, overall production grew by 11%, which translates to an average annual growth rate of 3.5%. The highest production level was recorded in 2018 at 13,371 tonnes, a year that saw a significant 25.7% increase. Conversely, 2019 experienced the largest decline, with production dropping by 23.0%.

Annual dynamics of production in Africa in kind, 2017-2020, t

Exports milk powder with fat content of ≤1.5% from Africa

Exports in kind, K t

Africa's exports of milk powder with a fat content of ≤1.5% rose for the second consecutive year in 2020, reaching 20.0 thousand tonnes. This represents a sharp 30.1% increase compared to 2019. However, over the four-year period from 2017 to 2020, total exports decreased by 16.5%, with a compound annual growth rate of -5.8%. The lowest export volume was recorded in 2018 at 9.6 thousand tonnes, which also saw the largest decline of 59.8%. In contrast, 2019 experienced the most significant increase, with exports jumping by 59.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Singapore remained the primary export partner for Africa's milk powder with a fat content of ≤1.5%, accounting for 0.8% of total export volumes.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

After two years of decline, Africa's exports of milk powder with a fat content of ≤1.5% increased in 2020, reaching 55 million US dollars. This marked a sharp 46.7% rise compared to the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, however, total export value decreased by 6%, with a compound annual growth rate of -2.0%. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 37 million US dollars, while 2018 saw the largest decline of 20.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, Singapore consistently held the largest share of Africa's milk powder exports with a fat content of ≤1.5% in value terms, representing 0.6% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Africa in value, 2017-2020

Imports milk powder with fat content of ≤1.5% to Africa

Imports in kind, K t

Following a two-year decline, Africa's imports of milk powder with a fat content of ≤1.5% increased in 2020, totaling 478.4 thousand tonnes. This indicates a 24.6% rise from 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports grew by 14.3%, with an average annual growth rate of 4.6%. The lowest import volume was recorded in 2019 at 384.0 thousand tonnes, which also experienced the largest decline of 5.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Africa's imports of milk powder with a fat content of ≤1.5% were distributed across many different markets. Even the top three destinations—France, New Zealand, and Poland—collectively accounted for only 37.4% of total import volumes.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Africa's imports of milk powder with a fat content of ≤1.5% increased for the second consecutive year in 2020, reaching 1,314 million US dollars. This represents a steep 47.2% uptick compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, import value grew by 34.1%, with a compound annual growth rate of 10.3%. The lowest value was recorded in 2018 at 843 million US dollars, which also saw the largest decline of 14.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, Africa's imports of milk powder with a fat content of ≤1.5% in value terms were characterized by a broad spread across markets. The top three suppliers—France (16.7% of import value), New Zealand (13.0%), and Poland (9.8%)—together accounted for only 39.5% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Africa in value, 2017-2020