Bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares market in Croatia

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2019, the market's physical volume held steady, supported by growing consumer demand for indulgent and convenient packaged sweet bakery products, a segment where Mondelez Zagreb showed notable growth. This demand was offset by rising production costs, which pressured profitability and contributed to a decline in the market's total value during these initial years. The significant volume contraction in 2020 was primarily driven by global supply chain disruptions and shifts in consumer behavior linked to the COVID-19 pandemic.

A recovery in market volume began in 2021, sustained through 2024 by consistent consumer preference for convenient sweet bakery items like cakes and pastries. This trend was reinforced by the ongoing strong presence of major companies, including Mondelez and Fortenova Grupa. During this recovery phase, record-high average import prices for bakery products, noted from 2023, became a key driver behind the substantial increase in the market's total monetary value.

The market structure throughout the period was shaped by established leaders such as Mlinar, which leveraged its extensive retail chain. In the absence of major domestic regulatory changes, the market's expansion in both volume and value was ultimately guided by these underlying consumer trends and cost pressures.

Production bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares in Croatia

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Croatia's production of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares declined for the second consecutive year. In 2020, the output was valued at 421.4 million US dollars, which is 9.3% lower than in 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production decreased by 16.2%, with a compound annual growth rate of -5.7%. The highest value was recorded in 2018 at 529.6 million US dollars, with the largest increase that year of 5.3%. The most significant decline occurred in 2019, dropping by 12.2%.

Annual dynamics of production in Croatia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Croatia ranked as the 22nd largest producer of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares globally.

Top producers of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares, 2017-2020

World map of production of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares, 2017-2020

Croatia's production of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares declined for the third consecutive year. In 2020, 225.4 thousand tonnes were produced, marking an 8.1% decrease compared to 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, production fell by 12.3%, equating to an annualized decline rate of 4.3%.

Annual dynamics of production in Croatia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares from Croatia

Exports in kind, t

Exports of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares from Croatia increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, Croatia exported 34 678 tonnes, showing a slight uptick of 2.2% compared to 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, exports grew by 23%, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Croatia in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia were the top contributors to Croatia's exports in kind. Slovenia accounted for 24.7% of exports, Bosnia and Herzegovina for 17.9%, and Serbia for 10.1%. Together, these three countries represented 52.7% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Croatia in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Exports of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares from Croatia increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the export value reached 94.5 million US dollars, reflecting a small gain of 2.4% compared to the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, exports rose by 23.2%, equating to an annualized growth rate of 7.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Croatia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia stood out as the main markets for Croatia's exports in value terms. Slovenia contributed 25.4% of export value, Bosnia and Herzegovina 16.9%, and Serbia 11.4%. Collectively, these three countries accounted for 53.7% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Croatia in value, 2017-2020

Imports bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares to Croatia

Imports in kind, t

After a two-year increase, imports of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares into Croatia declined. In 2020, imports totaled 75 830 tonnes, representing a moderate decrease of 4.1% relative to 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, imports increased by 19.7%, with an annualized growth rate of 6.2%. The highest volume was recorded in 2019 at 79 049 tonnes, which also saw the largest increase of 14.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Croatia in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Germany, Italy, and Poland were the largest suppliers of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares to Croatia in kind. Germany accounted for 18.7% of imports, Italy for 11.6%, and Poland for 11.1%. Together, these three countries made up 41.5% of total imports, with many smaller partners contributing the remainder.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Croatia in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

After a two-year increase, imports of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares into Croatia declined. In 2020, imports amounted to 182.4 million US dollars, marking a modest decrease of 3.8% compared to the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, imports grew by 25.6%, with an annualized rate of 7.9%. The peak value was recorded in 2019 at 189.7 million US dollars, while the largest increase occurred in 2018 at 18.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Croatia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, there was no single dominant market for Croatia's imports of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares in value terms. Germany accounted for 21.6% of imports, Italy for 13.5%, and Poland for 11.2%. Together, these three countries represented 46.3% of total imports, with many smaller partners each holding modest individual shares.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Croatia in value, 2017-2020