Bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares market in China

Earlier Report Observations

Between 2018 and 2023, the market volume for bakery products in China contracted from 289 thousand tons to 220 thousand tons. This overall decline in physical volume occurred alongside a shift in consumer preferences, driven by rising incomes which increased demand for higher-value products. The expansion of major producers like Taoli Bread, with its 'central factory + wholesale' model for fresh short-shelf-life products, helped shape the industry's structure during this period.

The market experienced a temporary rebound in volume to 260 thousand tons in 2021. This stabilization coincided with the China Bakery and Confectionery Association launching national vocational standards for bakers and decorators, aimed at improving industry skills. Furthermore, the rapid growth of convenience store and small retail chains improved product accessibility for consumers, supporting market activity.

From 2022, the clear consumer trend towards healthy, low-sugar, and additive-free products accelerated product diversification and innovation. New brands like Taoxi Manman, focusing on low-sugar and probiotic offerings, entered the market with angel funding. Concurrently, technological advancements in automation and cold chain logistics enhanced production efficiency. These factors contributed to a rising export volume, which reached 216 thousand tons in 2023, while domestic market volume continued to adjust as the industry upgraded its offerings.

Production bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares in China

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, China maintained the 21st position globally in terms of production volume for bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares.

Top producers of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares, 2017-2020

World map of production of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares, 2017-2020

Following a two-year decline, China's production of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares increased. In 2020, output reached 251.5 K t, showing minimal change from the previous year. The lowest production level was recorded in 2019 at 251.3 K t, which also saw the largest decline of 0.9%.

Annual dynamics of production in China in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

China's production value for bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares fell for the second consecutive year. In 2020, the output was valued at 739.8 M $ US, down 2.1% year-over-year. The highest value occurred in 2018 at 776.1 M $ US, which also experienced the largest increase of 6.4%. The largest decline was in 2019 at 2.6%.

Annual dynamics of production in China in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares from China

Exports in kind, K t

After two years of growth, China's exports of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares decreased. In 2020, exports totaled 149.1 K t, a moderate reduction of 4.9% from the previous year. From 2017 to 2020, exports rose by 13%, equivalent to an annualized rate of 4.2%. The peak was in 2019 at 156.8 K t, which also saw the largest increase of 17.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from China in kind, 2017-2020, K t

The export structure in kind from 2017 to 2020 reveals a diverse range of partners. Japan accounted for 20.2% of exports, Hong Kong for 18.1%, and the Philippines for 7.2%, together making up 45.5% of total flows. The remaining 54.5% was distributed among numerous smaller markets.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from China in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Following a two-year uptrend, China's export value for bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares declined. In 2020, exports were valued at 438.8 M $ US, a moderate decrease of 7.0% compared to 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, exports grew by 15.8%, translating to an annualized rate of 5.0%. The highest value was recorded in 2019 at 471.6 M $ US, which also experienced the largest increase of 15.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from China in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

The partner structure for export value from 2017 to 2020 remained fragmented. Hong Kong contributed 21.5% of exports, Japan 19.0%, and the United States 6.4%, together accounting for 46.9% of total flows, with no single country holding a dominant share.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from China in value, 2017-2020

Imports bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares to China

Imports in kind, K t

China's imports of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares declined for the second year in a row. In 2020, imports totaled 148.6 K t, a modest drop of 8.9% from 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports decreased by 7.8%, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.7%. The peak was in 2018 at 168.5 K t, which also saw the largest increase of 4.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to China in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Indonesia was the largest supplier of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares to China, accounting for 37.5% of imports in kind. Malaysia followed with 11.1%, and Asia, not elsewhere specified, with 6.8%. Together, these three sources made up 55.4% of total imports in kind.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to China in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

After two years of growth, China's import value for bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares fell. In 2020, imports were approximately 819.7 M $ US, reflecting a 2.0% decline from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports increased by 5.8%, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.9%. The highest value was in 2019 at 836.6 M $ US, and the largest increase occurred in 2018 at 5.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to China in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, Indonesia contributed 23.1% of import value, Hong Kong 22.7%, and Malaysia 8.2%, jointly accounting for 54.1% of total flows in value terms.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to China in value, 2017-2020