Bread market in Eastern Africa

Earlier Report Observations

Between 2018 and 2020, bread production in Eastern Africa increased from 331.8 thousand tons to 351.4 thousand tons, driving the overall market volume up to 361.3 thousand tons.

From 2021 onward, the market entered a period of contraction, with volume falling to 234.0 thousand tons by 2023. This decline was primarily driven by soaring production costs. In 2022, steep increases in the prices of wheat flour, sugar, and cooking oil, exacerbated by local inflation and a weakening currency against global wheat prices, pushed bread prices higher and reduced consumption. The trend continued into 2023 as high sugar and fuel costs maintained upward pressure on prices, despite some relief from local sugar mills resuming operations.

Throughout this period, the market saw significant shifts in consumer behavior, with a growing preference for whole grain, fiber-rich, and fortified breads. By 2024, improved supply conditions and government import policies were contributing to a general decline in cereal and processed food prices, indicating a potential easing of cost pressures for the bread market.

Production bread in Eastern Africa

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of bread, 2017-2020

World map of production of bread, 2017-2020

Bread production in Eastern Africa grew for the third year in a row. In 2020, the region produced 351.4 thousand tonnes of bread, which was 5.5% higher than the previous year. From 2017 to 2020, production increased by 7.6%, averaging an annual growth rate of 2.5%.

Annual dynamics of production in Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

After declining for two years, bread production in Eastern Africa rebounded in value terms. In 2020, the output was valued at 571.6 million US dollars, marking a 3.1% increase compared to 2019. However, over the period from 2017 to 2020, production value fell by 25.6%, with an average annual decline of 9.4%. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 554.5 million US dollars, which saw the largest drop of 17.8%.

Annual dynamics of production in Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports bread from Eastern Africa

Exports in kind, t

Following two years of growth, bread export volumes from Eastern Africa decreased. In 2020, exports totaled 7 080 tonnes, showing a modest year-on-year decline of 4.2%. From 2017 to 2020, exports overall increased by 9.1%, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.9%. The peak was in 2019 at 7 394 tonnes, while the largest increase occurred in 2018 at 9.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, the United States, the United Arab Emirates, and Sweden were consistently the top destinations for bread exports in kind. The United States accounted for 31.4% of exports, the United Arab Emirates for 29.9%, and Sweden for 10.7%, together making up 72.1% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

Foreign bread supplies from Eastern Africa declined for the third consecutive year. In 2020, exports amounted to 11 517 thousand US dollars, representing a moderate decrease of 6.5% compared to the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, exports fell by 24.6%, with an average annual decline of 9.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, the United States, the United Arab Emirates, and Sweden were the main markets for bread exports in value terms. The United States held 31.9% of export value, the United Arab Emirates 21.3%, and Sweden 7.4%, collectively accounting for 60.6% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020

Imports bread to Eastern Africa

Imports in kind, t

In 2020, bread imports into Eastern Africa reached 17 069 tonnes, rising by 9.4% from the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, imports increased by 13%, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.2%. The largest decline was recorded in 2019 at 1.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, t

Between 2017 and 2020, bread imports in kind were spread across many partner countries. South Africa, France, and Malaysia were the leading sources, with South Africa accounting for 21.3% of imports, France for 13.4%, and Malaysia for 12.6%. Together, they represented 47.4% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

In 2020, bread imports into Eastern Africa were valued at 45 631 thousand US dollars, up 3.6% from 2019. From 2017 to 2020, imports grew by 9.5%, with an average annual increase of 3.1%. The highest value was in 2018 at 47 053 thousand US dollars, which also saw the largest rise of 12.9%. The largest decline occurred in 2019 at 6.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Throughout 2017 to 2020, South Africa, France, and Malaysia remained the key sources for bread imports in value terms. Together, these three markets accounted for 53.0% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020