Bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares market in Eastern Africa

Earlier Report Observations

The market for bread, pastry, cakes, and biscuits in Eastern Africa expanded from 636 thousand tons in 2018 to 707 thousand tons in 2021. This growth was supported by increasing domestic production, which rose from 593 thousand tons to 656 thousand tons over the same period, alongside a notable surge in imports to 111 thousand tons in 2021.

A sharp reversal occurred from 2022, with the market volume contracting to 594 thousand tons and then to 479 thousand tons in 2023. This decline coincided with a significant drop in local production, which fell to 496 thousand tons in 2023, while export volumes continued to grow steadily, reaching 82 thousand tons that year.

Recent developments in Kenya, a key market within the region, include the entry of new players and a rise in artisanal and home-based bakeries driven by growing consumer demand for fresh and specialty products. The competitive landscape is intensifying with the expansion of supermarket in-store bakeries, and consumer preferences are shifting towards options perceived as healthier, such as sourdough and multigrain breads.

Production bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares in Eastern Africa

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares, 2017-2020

World map of production of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares, 2017-2020

Production of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares in Eastern Africa has grown for the third year in a row. In 2020, the region produced 628.7 thousand tonnes of these goods, representing a 5.4% increase from the previous year. From 2017 to 2020, overall production rose by 7.5%, which translates to an average annual growth rate of 2.4%.

Annual dynamics of production in Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares from Eastern Africa

Exports in kind, t

Exports of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares from Eastern Africa have expanded for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the region shipped 31 448 tonnes of these products, up 7.1% compared to the year before. Between 2017 and 2020, exports surged by 51.2%, averaging an annual growth rate of 14.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (40.8% of exports in kind), the United States (6.1%), and the United Arab Emirates (5.9%) were the top destinations for these exports, collectively making up 52.8% of total shipments.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

The data shows irregular fluctuations, pointing to a volatile market environment. Export values hit their lowest point in 2017, peaked in 2018 at 132.6 million US dollars, and then varied in subsequent years. In 2020, exports from Eastern Africa totaled 62.8 million US dollars, a slight decrease of 1.8% from the previous year. The largest decline occurred in 2019, with a 51.8% drop, while the biggest increase was in 2018, at 203.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, the distribution of export values was quite scattered. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (40.1% of exports in value terms), the United States (5.6%), and the United Arab Emirates (3.8%) together accounted for 49.5% of total flows, with no single partner emerging as clearly dominant.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020

Imports bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and bakers’ wares to Eastern Africa

Imports in kind, t

In 2020, Eastern Africa imported 61 303 tonnes of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares, a 4.4% year-over-year increase. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, imports grew by 3.4%, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.1%. The lowest import volume was in 2019 at 58 701 tonnes, while the highest was in 2018 at 68 635 tonnes. The largest decline was recorded in 2019 at 14.5%, and the biggest increase was in 2018 at 15.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, three key markets—India, South Africa, and Turkey—collectively supplied 52.3% of all imports in kind of bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares to Eastern Africa.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Import values for bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, and bakers' wares in Eastern Africa fell for the second year in a row. In 2020, imports amounted to 118.1 million US dollars, a small reduction of 1.2% from the previous year. The highest value was recorded in 2018 at 121.5 million US dollars. The largest decline occurred in 2019 at 1.6%, while the biggest increase was in 2018 at 3.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, South Africa (19.0% of imports in value terms), India (16.1%), and France (9.2%) were the leading suppliers of these goods to Eastern Africa, though none dominated the market. Together, they accounted for 44.2% of total import value, with many smaller partners also contributing.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020