Wheat bran, sharps and residues market in Kenya

Earlier Report Observations

The market volume for wheat bran and residues in Kenya contracted sharply from over 411,000 tons in 2018 to just 142,000 tons in 2023. This decline began with a drastic reduction in imports during 2019 and was exacerbated from 2022 onward by a series of production challenges. Wheat output fell by 16.1% in 2022 due to adverse weather conditions, and the situation worsened in 2023 as an outbreak of stem rust disease and high pesticide costs threatened crops. Furthermore, low wheat prices prompted many farmers to exit wheat farming, reducing the acreage and raw material supply for bran production.

International trade dynamics significantly influenced domestic market volume. Kenya's heavy reliance on wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine—sources for about 90% of its consumption—made the supply chain vulnerable to global disruptions. Concurrently, export volumes of bran and residues surged, jumping from 150,500 tons in 2022 to 243,200 tons in 2023, diverting product away from the local market. Internally, the high cost of wheat bran as a raw material for animal feed forced numerous feed millers to operate at a loss or shut down, severely depressing domestic consumption.

Structural and policy factors shaped the market's trajectory. Acidic soils in key wheat-growing areas emerged as a persistent challenge, necessitating the development and adoption of acid-tolerant varieties. The government encouraged investment in local milling facilities to add value and reduce import dependency, aiming to alter the market structure. The introduction of high-yielding wheat varieties like 'Sunbird' sought to boost grain supply, but rising costs for imported feed ingredients continued to pressure the livestock sector, a primary consumer of wheat bran.

Production wheat bran, sharps and residues in Kenya

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Kenya ranked as the 30th largest global producer of wheat bran, sharps, and residues between 2017 and 2020.

Top producers of wheat bran, sharps and residues, 2017-2020

World map of production of wheat bran, sharps and residues, 2017-2020

Kenya's production of wheat bran, sharps, and residues grew for the third consecutive year. In 2020, output reached 481.9 K t, marking a 5.4% increase from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, production rose by 9.2%, averaging an annual growth rate of 3.0%.

Annual dynamics of production in Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, K $ US

The value of Kenya's wheat bran, sharps, and residues production also increased for the third year in a row. In 2020, production was valued at 58 078 K $ US, showing minimal change compared to 2019. From 2017 to 2020, the value grew by 7.6%, with an average annual rate of 2.5%.

Annual dynamics of production in Kenya in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Exports wheat bran, sharps and residues from Kenya

Exports in kind, K t

Exports of wheat bran, sharps, and residues from Kenya continued to rise for the third consecutive year. In 2020, exports totaled 151.9 K t, up 3.8% from 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, export volumes surged by 94.3%, translating to an average annual increase of 24.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, the main destinations for Kenya's exports in kind were the United Arab Emirates (34.5% of exports), Oman (32.2%), and Vietnam (15.2%). Together, these three markets accounted for 81.9% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Kenya in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

Export values showed notable fluctuations during this period. Volumes peaked in 2019 and hit their lowest point in 2017, with a 1.9-fold difference between these years. In 2020, exports were valued at 18 312 K $ US, down 1.0% from 2019. The highest value was recorded in 2019 at 18 501 K $ US, while the largest annual increase occurred in 2018 at 76.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kenya in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

In terms of value, the primary markets for Kenya's exports from 2017 to 2020 were Oman (34.3% of export value), the United Arab Emirates (32.7%), and Vietnam (14.7%). Collectively, these destinations made up 81.7% of total export value.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Kenya in value, 2017-2020

Imports wheat bran, sharps and residues to Kenya

Imports in kind, K t

Import volumes exhibited significant volatility. They reached a high in 2017 and dropped to a low in 2019, with an 8.3-fold variation between these years. In 2020, imports amounted to 31.8 K t, representing a sharp increase of 140.9% compared to 2019. The lowest volume was recorded in 2019 at 13.2 K t, which also saw the largest decline of 85.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Throughout 2017-2020, imports in kind were heavily concentrated on Uganda, which accounted for 90.1% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Kenya in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

Import values also displayed irregular patterns, reflecting a volatile market. Values peaked in 2017 and fell to a minimum in 2019, varying by 14.5 times. In 2020, imports were valued at 3 227 K $ US, up 80.4% from 2019. The lowest value was in 2019 at 1 789 K $ US, which experienced the steepest decline of 91.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kenya in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Uganda dominated Kenya's imports in value terms, accounting for 96.1% of total import value, making it the overwhelmingly dominant market.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Kenya in value, 2017-2020