Wheat and meslin market in MENA

Earlier Report Observations

Between 2018 and 2021, the wheat and meslin market volume in the MENA region fluctuated, rising from 77.8 million tons to 85.4 million tons. This period began with significant import growth pushing regional demand. In 2019, climatic and economic factors caused fluctuations in global wheat production, indirectly affecting availability in MENA and coinciding with a temporary market contraction. The subsequent recovery in 2020 was supported by an 18% increase in global wheat output, which improved supply, though COVID-19 pandemic disruptions to global logistics and distribution created countervailing pressures. The market reached a peak in 2021, influenced by a global high in production and consumption, with China's role as a major player affecting international prices and availability for the region.

The market volume declined to 79.5 million tons in 2022, primarily due to a sharp 16% average increase in export and import prices driven by global agricultural inflation and geopolitical tensions, including the war in Ukraine, which directly impacted MENA. Concurrent disruptions in the global supply chain, particularly from sanctions affecting Russia and Belarus, hampered fertilizer availability and raised production costs for key suppliers. In response, several MENA countries adjusted import regulations and policies to secure food security and diversify wheat sources, shaping trade flows during this period of tightened supply and higher costs.

In 2023, the market volume surged to 131.4 million tons. This expansion occurred amid persistent high price levels and ongoing adjustments to foreign trade policies aimed at controlling food inflation within the region. By 2024, global factors such as the stabilization of international prices and the normalization of logistical chains contributed to a more stable trading environment. Import values remained elevated, though slightly below the 2022 peak, reflecting sustained demand and a market adapting to new cost structures and supply sources.

Production wheat and meslin in MENA

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of wheat and meslin, 2017-2020

World map of production of wheat and meslin, 2017-2020

MENA's wheat and meslin production volume declined after two consecutive years of growth. In 2020, the region produced 39 547 K t, marking a 1.2% decrease from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, production increased by 5.9%, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.9%. The highest production level was recorded in 2019 at 40 018 K t, which also saw the largest annual increase of 3.9%.

Annual dynamics of production in MENA in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports wheat and meslin from MENA

Exports in kind, K t

The market demonstrated significant volatility during the observed period. Import levels fluctuated substantially, with a 3.3-fold difference between the peak in 2018 and the trough in 2019. In 2020, MENA's wheat and meslin exports reached 190 K t, representing a 135.8% increase from the previous year. The lowest export volume was recorded in 2019 at 81 K t, while the highest was in 2018 at 265 K t. The most significant decline occurred in 2019, dropping by 69.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from MENA in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Sri Lanka (19.9% of exports in kind), Turkey (16.4% of exports in kind), and Free Zones (15.5% of exports in kind) consistently served as the primary destinations for exports in kind. Together, these three markets accounted for 51.8% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from MENA in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

The market exhibited an unstable trend throughout the timeframe. Export volumes in value terms varied by a factor of two between the high in 2018 and the low in 2019. In 2020, wheat and meslin shipments from MENA to international markets registered 56 M $ US, reflecting a 53.2% year-over-year increase. The minimum value was recorded in 2019 at 37 M $ US, while the maximum was in 2018 at 74 M $ US. The largest decline occurred in 2019, falling by 50.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from MENA in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Over the 2017-2020 period, the country breakdown of exports in value terms remained relatively scattered. Sri Lanka (21.1% of exports in value terms), Turkey (12.9% of exports in value terms), and Free Zones (12.6% of exports in value terms) together accounted for just 46.5% of total flows, with no single partner emerging as clearly dominant.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from MENA in value, 2017-2020

Imports wheat and meslin to MENA

Imports in kind, K t

The data reveals irregular changes, indicating a volatile market environment. Import volumes showed a 1.8-fold gap between the lowest point in 2019 and the highest in 2020. In 2020, wheat and meslin imports into MENA totalled 42 013 K t, representing a 79.9% increase from 2019. The minimum value was recorded in 2019 at 23 353 K t, while the largest decline occurred that same year, dropping by 40.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to MENA in kind, 2017-2020, K t

During the 2017-2020 period, Russia (25.0% of imports in kind), France (17.4% of imports in kind), and Ukraine (14.9% of imports in kind) were the principal sources for imports in kind. Collectively, these three countries accounted for 57.4% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to MENA in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

In 2020, wheat and meslin shipments into MENA from abroad totalled 10 958 M $ US, up by 22.3% compared to 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, imports increased by 26%, equating to an 8.0% annualized growth rate. The largest decline was recorded in 2019, falling by 4.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to MENA in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Throughout 2017-2020, Russia (27.4% of imports in value terms), France (15.0% of imports in value terms), and Ukraine (14.9% of imports in value terms) formed the core group of markets for imports in value terms. Together, these three countries represented 57.3% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to MENA in value, 2017-2020