Wheat and meslin market in Brazil

Earlier Report Observations

In the late 2010s, the Brazilian wheat and meslin market relied heavily on imports, primarily from Argentina, to meet domestic demand. Domestic production reached 5 469 thousand tons in 2018 but remained insufficient, subject to climatic variability. A severe crop shortfall in the previous season reduced stocks and raised prices in 2019, increasing the need for imports even though actual import volumes slightly declined to 6 576 thousand tons. The following year, reduced wheat and flour imports from Argentina followed the Peronist government's export tax imposition, adding pressure to the Brazilian market despite growing domestic output to 6 344 thousand tons.

The early 2020s saw a substantial expansion in Brazilian wheat production, which grew by 80% between 2017 and 2021 driven by technological advances and genetic seed improvement. Production rose to 7 878 thousand tons in 2021, enhancing the quality of Brazilian wheat for various industrial uses. A record harvest of 10 343 thousand tons in 2022 was supported by heated global demand and tight worldwide supply, which also buoyed prices. The production surge facilitated rising exports to 3 073 thousand tons while imports gradually decreased, reducing Brazil's dependence on foreign supplies.

By 2023, market volume contracted to 9 556 thousand tons, reflecting a drop in production to 7 730 thousand tons amid persistent climatic and infrastructural challenges. Strategic expansion of wheat cultivation into the Cerrado region continued as a long-term self-sufficiency factor. In subsequent years, reduced planted area in key states like Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul—due to weather losses and competition from more profitable crops—contributed to record import volumes, estimated at 7 000–7 300 thousand tons in 2025, with Argentina supplying the overwhelming share. Technological progress and improved seeds partially offset the area reduction through higher yields, maintaining exports at around 2 100 thousand tons. The market remained sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations, global supply chains, and international trade policies.

Production wheat and meslin in Brazil

In kind, 2018-2021, K t

Brazil ranked 21st globally in wheat and meslin production from 2018 to 2021.

Top producers of wheat and meslin, 2018-2021

World map of production of wheat and meslin, 2018-2021

Wheat and meslin production in Brazil increased for the third consecutive year. In 2021, Brazil produced 7 878 K t of wheat and meslin, up 24.2% from the previous year. Between 2018 and 2021, production grew by 44%, representing an annualized growth rate of 12.9%.

Annual dynamics of production in Brazil in kind, 2018-2021, K t

In value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Wheat and meslin production in Brazil increased for the third consecutive year. In 2021, the output was valued at 1 981 M $ US, a significant 56.8% increase over the past year. From 2018 to 2021, production rose by 97.9%, with a compound annual growth rate of 25.6%.

Annual dynamics of production in Brazil in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Exports wheat and meslin from Brazil

Exports in kind, K t

The market exhibited volatility during the observed period. Brazil exported 1 129 K t of wheat and meslin in 2021, which is 101.4% higher than in 2020. The largest increase occurred in 2019 at 154.8%, while the largest decline was in 2020 at 0.5%. Import levels fluctuated, with a 5.1-fold difference between the low in 2018 and the high in 2021.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Brazil in kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia were the main markets for Brazil's wheat and meslin exports in kind. Vietnam accounted for 27.8% of exports, Indonesia for 24.4%, and Saudi Arabia for 15.4%, together representing 67.6% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Brazil in kind, 2018-2021

Exports in value, M $ US

The data shows irregular changes, indicating a volatile market environment. In 2021, Brazil's wheat and meslin export volume totaled 284 M $ US, up 154.2% from the previous year. The largest increase was in 2019 at 187.9%, while the largest decline was in 2020 at 4.2%. The period saw a peak in 2021 and a trough in 2018, with a 7-fold gap between them.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Brazil in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

From 2018 to 2021, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia formed the main group of destinations for Brazil's wheat and meslin exports in value terms. Vietnam accounted for 26.9% of exports, Indonesia for 26.6%, and Saudi Arabia for 16.6%, together making up 70.0% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from Brazil in value, 2018-2021

Imports wheat and meslin to Brazil

Imports in kind, K t

After a two-year decline, cross-border shipments of wheat and meslin to Brazil increased. In 2021, Brazil imported approximately 6 225 K t of wheat and meslin, a 1.1% rise from 2020. The minimum value was recorded in 2020 at 6 160 K t, with the largest decline that year at 6.3%. Between 2018 and 2021, imports decreased by 8.5%, equating to an annualized decline of 2.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Brazil in kind, 2018-2021, K t

From 2018 to 2021, Argentina accounted for 82.7% of Brazil's total wheat and meslin imports in kind, with the remainder distributed among a wide range of smaller destinations.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Brazil in kind, 2018-2021

Imports in value, M $ US

After a two-year fall, Brazil's wheat and meslin import volume increased. In 2021, imports totaled 1 851 M $ US, which is 26.8% higher than the previous year. The minimum value was recorded in 2020 at 1 459 M $ US, with the largest decline that year at 10.3%. Between 2018 and 2021, imports grew by 12.8%, representing an annualized growth rate of 4.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Brazil in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Throughout 2018 to 2021, Argentina dominated Brazil's import partner structure in value terms, holding an 83.3% share of total flows, while other markets had comparatively modest shares.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to Brazil in value, 2018-2021