Wheat and meslin market in Iran

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2020, Iran's wheat and meslin market volume increased from 13.3 million tons to 16.8 million tons. This growth was largely supported by rising imports, initiated to bolster strategic reserves amid domestic production challenges. A key factor was the diversion of wheat to animal feed due to rising feedstuff prices, which reduced wheat available for the food supply chain. The launch of contract farming schemes in Sistan and Baluchestan province, involving state-backed executors and flour mills, helped organize and support local cultivation during this period.

The market faced a pivotal shift in 2021 when severe drought and international sanctions caused domestic production to drop sharply to 11.1 million tons. To cover the shortfall, imports surged to 7.1 million tons. This period also coincided with a spike in global wheat prices following the Ukraine crisis, which placed additional pressure on the market and contributed to a further volume increase to 18.2 million tons.

In response, government policy became a primary driver from 2022 onward. By significantly raising the guaranteed purchase price for wheat and allocating substantial credit for fertilizers and crop insurance, authorities stimulated a strong production recovery. Output rose to 13.3 million tons in 2022 and reached 16.6 million tons in 2023. Consequently, import reliance decreased, and the total market volume stabilized around 18.6 million tons, marking a return to greater self-sufficiency.

Production wheat and meslin in Iran

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Globally, Iran ranked as the 15th largest producer of wheat and meslin between 2017 and 2020.

Top producers of wheat and meslin, 2017-2020

World map of production of wheat and meslin, 2017-2020

Following two consecutive years of growth, Iran's production of wheat and meslin experienced a decline. In 2020, the country produced 13 541 K t, marking a slight decrease of 1.3% compared to the previous year. Over the entire period from 2017 to 2020, production increased by 9.2%, which translates to an average annual growth rate of 3.0%. The highest production level was recorded in 2019 at 13 715 K t, with the most significant year-on-year increase occurring in 2018 at 7.3%.

Annual dynamics of production in Iran in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports wheat and meslin from Iran

Exports in kind, K t

In 2018, Iran exported 42 K t of wheat and meslin, representing a 52.8% decrease from the previous year.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Iran in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Oman dominated Iran's export structure in kind, accounting for 76.4% of total flows, while other destinations contributed relatively minor shares.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Iran in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

In 2018, Iran's wheat and meslin exports in value terms amounted to 9.9 M $ US, reflecting a decline of 49.8% compared to the previous year.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Iran in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

During the 2017–2020 period, Oman remained the primary market for Iran's exports in value terms, holding a 75.0% share of total flows, with the remainder distributed across various other destinations.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Iran in value, 2017-2020

Imports wheat and meslin to Iran

Imports in kind, K t

The market showed an unstable trend throughout the timeframe. Imports reached their lowest point in 2018 at 0.4 K t and peaked in 2020 at 3 285 K t, representing a dramatic 9 125-fold increase between these years. In 2020, foreign supplies of wheat and meslin to Iran surged by 498.7% year-over-year. The largest decline occurred in 2018 with a 99.5% drop, while the most substantial increase was recorded in 2019 at 152 315.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Iran in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Between 2017 and 2020, Russia, Turkey, and Germany were the principal sources for Iran's imports in kind, with shares of 33.1%, 22.6%, and 16.5% respectively. Together, these three countries accounted for 72.1% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Iran in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Market performance exhibited noticeable fluctuations during this period. Imports hit their lowest point in 2018 at 0.3 M $ US and peaked in 2020 at 919.3 M $ US, showing a 3 626-fold difference. In 2020, Iran's wheat and meslin imports in value terms rose by 524.2% compared to the previous year. The largest decline was in 2018 at 98.8%, while the most significant increase occurred in 2019 at 57 995.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Iran in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Russia, Turkey, and Germany were the main sources for Iran's imports in value terms, with respective shares of 33.2%, 22.2%, and 16.9%. Collectively, these three countries represented 72.3% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Iran in value, 2017-2020