Milled rice and broken rice market in Iran

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2020, Iran's milled rice market volume first showed relative stability, then a sharp contraction. Government efforts to regulate the market, including guaranteed purchases and farmer subsidies, helped maintain domestic production. However, in 2020, import restrictions and currency issues severely curtailed foreign rice supplies, causing the total market volume to drop to 1.85 million tons despite an increase in homegrown output.

The downward trend continued into 2021, when the elimination of the preferential exchange rate for rice imports and a buildup of importers' foreign-currency debt further limited incoming shipments, reducing the market volume to 1.78 million tons. A turnaround came in 2022 after a subsidy system reform, which spurred a flood of Pakistani and Indian rice onto the market. Imports surged, pushing the total market volume to a peak of 2.73 million tons.

In 2023, the market volume fell back to 2.01 million tons as a steep decline in imports outweighed another rise in domestic production, which reached 1.26 million tons.

Production milled rice and broken rice in Iran

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of milled rice and broken rice, 2017-2020

World map of production of milled rice and broken rice, 2017-2020

In 2020, Iran produced 820 K t of milled rice and broken rice, marking an 18.0% increase compared to 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production grew by 18.6%, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.8%. The largest decline occurred in 2019, at 0.7%.

Annual dynamics of production in Iran in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports milled rice and broken rice from Iran

Exports in kind, K t

The market exhibited volatility during the observed period. Exports reached their lowest point in 2017 and peaked in 2020, showing a fourfold difference between these years. In 2020, Iran's cross-border shipments of milled rice and broken rice totaled 4 K t, reflecting a significant increase of 145.1% compared to 2019. The largest decline was recorded in 2019, at 28.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Iran in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Iraq, Canada, and Turkey emerged as the primary markets for exports in kind, accounting for 33.3%, 15.0%, and 7.9% of exports, respectively. Together, these three countries represented 56.3% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Iran in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

The market showed signs of volatility over the observed period. Export volumes fell to a trough in 2017 and peaked in 2020, with a top-to-bottom ratio of 3.3 times. In 2020, Iran exported 5 M $ US of milled rice and broken rice, indicating a sharp increase of 67.0% over the previous year. The largest decline occurred in 2019, at 21.4%, while the largest increase was recorded in 2018, at 151.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Iran in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, Iraq, Canada, and Turkey were the main destinations for exports in value terms, absorbing 31.3%, 17.3%, and 8.3% of exports, respectively. Collectively, these three countries accounted for 56.8% of total export value for milled rice and broken rice from Iran.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Iran in value, 2017-2020

Imports milled rice and broken rice to Iran

Imports in kind, K t

After a two-year improvement, the volume of milled rice and broken rice imports into Iran declined. Imports reached their maximum value in 2019 at 1 641 K t, but fell to 1 033 K t in 2020, down by 37.0% year-on-year. From 2017 to 2020, imports decreased by 20.1%, equating to an annualized rate of 7.2%. The largest increase was recorded in 2018, at 24.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Iran in kind, 2017-2020, K t

During 2017–2020, India and Pakistan dominated imports in kind, jointly accounting for 85.8% of total flows, with the remaining share distributed among other markets.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Iran in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Following a two-year rise, imported volumes of milled rice and broken rice into Iran declined. The maximum value was recorded in 2019 at 1 686 M $ US, but imports dropped to 925 M $ US in 2020, showing a decrease of 45.2% compared to 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, imports decreased by 23.8%, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.7%. The largest increase occurred in 2018, at 33.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Iran in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Throughout 2017–2020, India concentrated 73.3% of total imports in value terms, while the remainder was shared among many countries with smaller individual shares.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Iran in value, 2017-2020