Wheat and meslin flour and cereals market in Northern Africa

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2021, the wheat and meslin flour and cereals market in Northern Africa expanded consistently, with volume rising from 25.1 million tonnes to 26.9 million tonnes. This growth was primarily driven by increasing domestic production, which climbed from 25.5 million tonnes to 27.2 million tonnes. During this period, the region relied heavily on wheat imports, sourcing approximately 27.2 million tonnes in the 2019-2020 campaign mainly from Russia and Ukraine to meet demand.

The outbreak of war in Ukraine in 2022 triggered a sharp surge in global wheat prices, directly impacting imports into North Africa, which typically purchases around 30 million tonnes annually. Despite the price shock, market volume continued to grow, reaching 27.3 million tonnes in 2022, sustained by robust domestic consumption of wheat-based products like bread, pasta, and couscous. Russia's refusal to extend the Black Sea grain deal worsened food insecurity in the region, yet the market adjusted through maintained imports and local output.

In 2023, durum wheat prices remained elevated, particularly in North Africa, where demand stayed strong. Africa was estimated to import 57 million tonnes of wheat in the 2023-2024 season, representing 30% of global trade. Concurrently, investments in milling capacity and the promotion of local flour alternatives were observed, but the wheat and meslin flour market still advanced to 27.6 million tonnes, demonstrating resilience to external supply pressures.

Production wheat and meslin flour and cereals in Northern Africa

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2017-2020

World map of production of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2017-2020

Wheat and meslin flour and cereals production in Northern Africa has increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, production reached 26,757 thousand tons, marking a 1.0% rise compared to 2019. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production grew by 7.4%, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.4%.

Annual dynamics of production in Northern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Northern Africa's wheat and meslin flour and cereals production has increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the output was valued at 12,739 million US dollars, up by 12.0% compared to 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, production increased by 46.1%, equating to an annualized rate of 13.5%.

Annual dynamics of production in Northern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports wheat and meslin flour and cereals from Northern Africa

Exports in kind, K t

After a two-year increase, Northern Africa's volume of wheat and meslin flour and cereals exports declined. In 2020, exports reached 394.4 thousand tons, down by 35.4% compared to the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, exports increased by 8.9%, with an annualized rate of 2.9%. The maximum value was recorded in 2019 at 610.8 thousand tons, while the largest increase occurred in 2018 at 41.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Northern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Eritrea, Yemen, and Somalia accounted for the largest share of exports in kind, with Eritrea at 20.9%, Yemen at 20.3%, and Somalia at 20.2% of total exports. Together, these three countries comprised 61.4% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Northern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

After a two-year gain, wheat and meslin flour and cereals exports from Northern Africa declined. In 2020, exports stood at 187.8 million US dollars, which is 28.4% lower compared to the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, exports increased by 48.2%, with a compound annual growth rate of 14.0%. The maximum value was recorded in 2019 at 262.4 million US dollars, and the largest increase occurred in 2018 at 62.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Northern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Yemen, Eritrea, and Somalia formed the main cluster of markets for exports in value terms. Yemen accounted for 21.0%, Eritrea for 20.5%, and Somalia for 20.3% of total exports, with a combined share of 61.9% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Northern Africa in value, 2017-2020

Imports wheat and meslin flour and cereals to Northern Africa

Imports in kind, K t

The data reveals irregular changes, indicating a volatile market environment. From 2017 to 2018, the span exhibited a peak-to-trough amplitude of 8.5 times. In 2020, Northern Africa's volume of wheat and meslin flour and cereals imports amounted to 77.5 thousand tons, which is 13.3% lower relative to the prior year. The minimum value was recorded in 2018 at 39.1 thousand tons, with the largest decline occurring in 2018 at 88.2% and the largest increase in 2019 at 128.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Northern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Over the period from 2017 to 2020, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and France made the biggest contribution to imports in kind. Turkey accounted for 55.3%, the United Arab Emirates for 3.3%, and France for 2.8% of total imports, jointly accounting for 61.5% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Northern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Wheat and meslin flour and cereals imports to Northern Africa declined for the third consecutive year. In 2020, imports came to 34.6 million US dollars, which is 6.5% lower year-over-year. Between 2017 and 2020, imports decreased by 74.3%, equating to an annualized rate of 36.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Northern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, three main markets—Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and France—together absorbed 63.3% of total imports in value terms of wheat and meslin flour and cereals to Northern Africa.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Northern Africa in value, 2017-2020