Wheat and meslin flour and cereals market in Kenya

Earlier Report Observations

Kenya's wheat and meslin flour and cereals market experienced growth in production and market volume from 2018 to 2020, with output rising from 1 464 thousand tons to 1 571 thousand tons and market volume peaking at 1 575 thousand tons.

A sharp decline followed from 2021 to 2023, with production falling to 1 120 thousand tons and market volume dropping to 1 096 thousand tons. This contraction was driven by global supply chain disruptions that affected wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine, key suppliers for Kenya's consumption gap. During this period, the government's Wheat Purchase Scheme continued to operate, requiring millers to purchase locally grown wheat at set prices to support domestic production.

In 2024, regulatory measures included the setting of new minimum wheat prices for the upcoming season and the maintenance of a 10% import duty to balance local production with import needs. These actions, along with the launch of the National Agroecology Strategy, aimed to stabilize the market amid ongoing reliance on imports to meet domestic demand.

Production wheat and meslin flour and cereals in Kenya

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2017-2020

World map of production of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2017-2020

Kenya's production of wheat, meslin flour, and cereals has grown for the third year in a row. In 2020, the country produced 1,571 thousand tonnes, marking a modest 5.4% increase from the previous year. Looking at the period from 2017 to 2020, production rose by 9.2%, with an average annual growth rate of 3.0%.

Annual dynamics of production in Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

The value of wheat, meslin flour, and cereals production in Kenya has increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, output was valued at 689.4 million US dollars, up 12.9% from 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, production value grew by 13.2%, equivalent to an annualized rate of 4.2%. The lowest value was recorded in 2018 at 563.5 million US dollars, which also saw the largest decline of 7.5%.

Annual dynamics of production in Kenya in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports wheat and meslin flour and cereals from Kenya

Exports in kind, t

In 2020, Kenya's exports of wheat, meslin flour, and cereals reached 1,706 tonnes, a 6.3% year-on-year increase. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, exports grew by 3.5%, with an average annual growth rate of 1.1%. The lowest volume was recorded in 2019 at 1,605 tonnes, while the highest was in 2018 at 2,282 tonnes. The largest decline occurred in 2019 with a 29.7% drop, and the largest increase was in 2018 with a 38.3% rise.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, the structure of Kenya's exports in kind was dominated by South Sudan, which accounted for 87.9% of total flows, with numerous smaller partners making up the remainder.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Kenya in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

In 2020, Kenya's exports of wheat, meslin flour, and cereals amounted to 749 thousand US dollars, showing a robust 13.9% increase from the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, export value rose by 7.3%, with an average annual growth rate of 2.4%. The lowest value was in 2019 at 657 thousand US dollars, and the highest was in 2018 at 878 thousand US dollars. The largest decline was in 2019 with a 25.1% drop, while the largest increase was in 2018 with a 25.8% rise.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kenya in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, South Sudan accounted for 76.9% of Kenya's total export value in this category, with the rest distributed among a broad group of smaller countries.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Kenya in value, 2017-2020

Imports wheat and meslin flour and cereals to Kenya

Imports in kind, t

The data shows irregular changes, indicating a volatile market environment. Kenya imported 5,444 tonnes of wheat, meslin flour, and cereals in 2020, representing a sharp 543.2% increase from 2019. The lowest volume was recorded in 2019 at 846 tonnes, and the highest was in 2018 at 22,642 tonnes. The largest decline occurred in 2019 with a 96.3% drop. The span from 2018 to 2019 saw a peak-to-trough amplitude of 27 times.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Kenya's imports in kind of wheat, meslin flour, and cereals were largely oriented towards Tanzania and Egypt, whose combined share reached 84.0% of total flows, with other destinations playing a secondary role.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Kenya in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

There were noticeable fluctuations in market performance during this period. In 2020, foreign supplies of wheat, meslin flour, and cereals to Kenya amounted to 2,177 thousand US dollars, reflecting a sharp gain of 621.7% from 2019. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 302 thousand US dollars, and the highest was in 2018 at 8,125 thousand US dollars. The largest decline occurred in 2019 with a 96.3% drop. Volumes peaked in 2018 and sank to the lowest in 2019, with a top-to-bottom ratio of 27 times.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kenya in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Over the period from 2017 to 2020, Tanzania and Egypt consistently accounted for 83.1% of Kenya's total import value in this category, indicating a high degree of concentration alongside a long tail of smaller markets.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Kenya in value, 2017-2020