Wheat and meslin flour and cereals market in Southern Asia

Earlier Report Observations

The market volume for wheat and meslin flour in Southern Asia rose from 116.6 million tons in 2018 to 123.4 million tons in 2020. This increase was partly driven by the rapid growth of packaged wheat flour, which shifted consumption away from traditional local grinding and expanded the branded segment.

Growth continued, reaching 131.7 million tons by 2023. In 2021, heat waves in Punjab and Haryana affected wheat yields, while new FSSAI quality standards for cereal products were implemented. Significant government intervention followed in 2023, with authorities imposing stock limits on wheat and offloading 15 million tons from central reserves under the Open Market Sale Scheme to control prices and ensure supply for flour mills, supporting production volumes.

In 2024, imports of wheat and meslin flour were recorded at 2.5 million tons, with exports remaining negligible due to ongoing export restrictions. The government announced a higher minimum support price for wheat and introduced stricter contaminant limits effective from 2025, reflecting continued regulatory efforts to manage market stability.

Production wheat and meslin flour and cereals in Southern Asia

In kind, 2017-2020, M t

Top producers of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2017-2020

World map of production of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2017-2020

Wheat and meslin flour and cereals production in Southern Asia has increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, production reached 121.6 million tonnes, marking a 4.4% improvement compared to 2019. The minimum production level was recorded in 2018 at 114.9 million tonnes, which represented the largest decline of 3.0% during this period. Overall, between 2017 and 2020, production grew by 2.5%, equating to an annualized rate of 0.8%.

Annual dynamics of production in Southern Asia in kind, 2017-2020, M t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Wheat and meslin flour and cereals production in Southern Asia has increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the output was valued at 47 710 million US dollars, up by 4.9% year-over-year. Between 2017 and 2020, production increased by 21.6%, which translates to an annualized growth rate of 6.7%.

Annual dynamics of production in Southern Asia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports wheat and meslin flour and cereals from Southern Asia

Exports in kind, K t

Wheat and meslin flour and cereals export volumes from Southern Asia have declined for the third consecutive year. In 2020, export volume reached 115 thousand tonnes, representing a sharp decrease of 74.1% compared to the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, exports decreased by 81.5%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -43.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Southern Asia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, wheat and meslin flour and cereals from Southern Asia were supplied to a broad set of markets. The top destinations included Iraq (24.5% of exports in kind), Thailand (2.7%), and Malaysia (2.6%), which together accounted for 29.8% of total exports in kind. The remaining 70.2% was distributed among many smaller destinations.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Southern Asia in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Southern Asia's wheat and meslin flour and cereals export volume has declined for the third consecutive year. In 2020, exports were recorded at 45.1 million US dollars, showing a fall of 73.9% compared with 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, exports decreased by 78.1%, equating to an annualized rate of -39.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Southern Asia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

The data for 2017 to 2020 indicate that exports in value terms of wheat and meslin flour and cereals from Southern Asia were not concentrated on a few key destinations. Iraq (22.7% of exports in value terms), Thailand (3.5%), and Malaysia (3.5%) jointly accounted for 29.8% of total flows, with the rest spread across various other markets.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Southern Asia in value, 2017-2020

Imports wheat and meslin flour and cereals to Southern Asia

Imports in kind, K t

After a two-year reduction, Southern Asia's wheat and meslin flour and cereals imports have increased. In 2020, imports reached 1 961 thousand tonnes, representing a robust rise of 14.4% versus the previous year. The minimum value was recorded in 2019 at 1 715 thousand tonnes, which saw the largest decline of 20.7%. Overall, over the period from 2017 to 2020, imports decreased by 9.9%, with a CAGR of -3.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Southern Asia in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Throughout 2017 to 2020, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan were the core markets for imports in kind, jointly accounting for 83.1% of total flows. Other destinations had comparatively modest shares.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Southern Asia in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Southern Asia imported a total of 585.2 million US dollars of wheat and meslin flour and cereals in 2020, reflecting a negligible variation compared to 2019. The minimum value was recorded in 2019 at 584.7 million US dollars, which experienced the largest decline of 25.5%. In contrast, the maximum value was recorded in 2018 at 784.5 million US dollars, with the largest increase of 2.7% that year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, imports decreased by 23.4%, with a CAGR of -8.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Southern Asia in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Over 2017 to 2020, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan together captured 83.1% of total imports in value terms, while the rest of the flows were spread thinly across other markets.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Southern Asia in value, 2017-2020