Cereal germ market in Kenya

Earlier Report Observations

From 2018 to 2022, the cereal germ market in Kenya contracted from 202.1 тыс. т to 156.4 тыс. т. This prolonged decline was initially influenced by the sector's reliance on rain-fed agriculture, which created supply instability. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 introduced global supply chain disruptions, further constraining production and distribution. Additionally, starting in 2021, the Kenya Bureau of Standards (KEBS) intensified surveillance and enforcement actions against substandard maize flour brands, which tightened quality controls and affected the supply of cereal germ as a milling by-product.

A reversal occurred in 2023, with market volume rising to 167.3 тыс. т. The primary driver was the government's decision to lift the ban on genetically modified organisms (GMO), permitting the cultivation and importation of GMO crops. This policy shift expanded the raw material base for maize processing, thereby increasing cereal germ output. The National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) concurrently pursued its strategic plan focusing on innovation and food security, supporting market operations.

Key developments in 2024 included a bumper cereal harvest following favorable rains, which boosted supply and lowered prices. New regulations, such as the Price Control (Essential Goods) Amendment Bill and the National Food Reserve Regulations, were enacted to govern market reserves and pricing. Furthermore, the Competition Authority of Kenya's market inquiry report highlighted maize germ's significant role in the animal feed industry, underscoring its demand fundamentals.

Production cereal germ in Kenya

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Globally, Kenya ranked as the 18th largest producer of cereal germ from 2017 to 2020.

Top producers of cereal germ, 2017-2020

World map of production of cereal germ, 2017-2020

Cereal germ production in Kenya fell for the second year in a row. In 2020, the country produced 186.4 K t, marking a 5.0% drop from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, production decreased by 3.9%, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.3%. The highest output was in 2018 at 201.5 K t, which also saw the largest increase of 3.8%.

Annual dynamics of production in Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports cereal germ from Kenya

Exports in kind, t

In 2018, Kenya exported 1 t of cereal germ, a dramatic year-on-year surge of 1 983.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Kenya's export structure in kind was highly concentrated, with Canada alone making up 95.4% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Kenya in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

Kenya's cereal germ exports in 2018 reached 0.2 K $ US, reflecting a sharp 740.9% rise compared to the year before.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kenya in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, Canada and Uganda formed a highly concentrated pair of markets for Kenya's cereal germ exports in value terms, together accounting for 100.0% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Kenya in value, 2017-2020

Imports cereal germ to Kenya

Imports in kind, t

Market performance showed noticeable fluctuations during this period. Import levels varied widely, with a 91-fold difference between the peak in 2017 and the low in 2019. In 2020, Kenya imported {value_last_year} t of cereal germ, a 66.2% increase from the previous year. The lowest volume was in 2019 at 19 t, which also saw the largest decline of 96.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, India was the primary market for Kenya's imports in kind, holding an 81.2% share of total flows, while the remaining volume was spread across numerous other destinations.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Kenya in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

Market performance exhibited significant fluctuations during this period. Imports peaked in 2017 and hit their lowest point in 2019, with an 83-fold gap between these years. In 2020, Kenya's cereal germ imports were recorded at 16.7 K $ US, up 39.0% year-on-year. The minimum value was in 2019 at 12.0 K $ US, which also experienced the largest decline of 96.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kenya in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Throughout 2017-2020, India dominated Kenya's import structure in value terms, accounting for 79.6% of total flows, with other markets holding relatively modest shares.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Kenya in value, 2017-2020