Maize flour and cereals market in Kenya

Earlier Report Observations

The market volume for maize flour and cereals in Kenya declined from 3.6 million tons in 2018 to 2.8 million tons in 2022. This contraction was accelerated in 2022 when maize flour prices surged by 37.9%, driven by limited maize stocks and farmers holding produce, which reduced market accessibility and consumption.

In 2023, favorable rainfall increased maize production, and the government permitted duty-free imports of yellow maize for animal feed, stabilizing prices. These factors led to a notable drop in maize flour prices, contributing to a market volume rebound of 10.6% to 3.1 million tons.

Production maize flour and cereals in Kenya

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, Kenya was one of the world's leading producers of maize flour and cereals, ranking 11th globally by production volume.

Top producers of maize flour and cereals, 2017-2020

World map of production of maize flour and cereals, 2017-2020

Kenya's production of maize flour and cereals declined for the second consecutive year. In 2020, the country produced 3 194 K t, which represents a 7.8% decrease compared to the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, overall production fell by 7.4%, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.5%. The highest production volume was recorded in 2018 at 3 600 K t, which also saw the largest annual increase of 4.3%.

Annual dynamics of production in Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports maize flour and cereals from Kenya

Exports in kind, t

The export market for maize flour and cereals showed significant volatility during this period. Exports reached their lowest point in 2019 at 292 t, before rebounding to 1 099 t in 2020, representing a substantial 276.8% increase compared to the previous year. The peak export volume occurred in 2017, creating a 5.8-fold difference between the highest and lowest years. The most significant decline was recorded in 2019 at 74.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, t

Between 2017 and 2020, three key markets—Israel, South Sudan, and the United States—collectively accounted for 63.4% of Kenya's total maize flour and cereals exports in volume terms.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Kenya in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

Export values demonstrated considerable volatility, reflecting an unstable market environment. The lowest value was recorded in 2019 at 215 K $ US, while 2020 saw exports reach 701 K $ US, marking a dramatic 226.0% increase compared to the previous year. The peak export value occurred in 2020, creating a 3.3-fold difference between the highest and lowest years. The most significant decline was observed in 2019 at 60.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Kenya in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

From 2017 to 2020, South Sudan (29.1% of export value), Israel (16.5%), and the United States (13.3%) consistently served as the primary destinations for Kenya's maize flour and cereals exports in value terms, together representing 58.9% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Kenya in value, 2017-2020

Imports maize flour and cereals to Kenya

Imports in kind, t

Import volumes exhibited notable volatility throughout the observed period. The lowest import volume was recorded in 2017, while imports peaked in 2019 at 5 993 t, creating a 3.9-fold fluctuation between these extremes. In 2020, imports stood at 3 447 t, representing a 42.5% decrease compared to the previous year. The most substantial increase occurred in 2018 at 268.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kenya in kind, 2017-2020, t

During the 2017-2020 period, Tanzania dominated Kenya's maize flour and cereals imports in volume terms, accounting for 88.2% of total flows, with numerous smaller partners making up the remainder.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Kenya in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

Import values showed irregular patterns, indicating a volatile market environment. The lowest value was recorded in 2017, while imports reached their peak in 2019 at 2 953 K $ US, reflecting a 3.6-fold difference between these years. In 2020, import values totaled 1 828 K $ US, representing a 38.1% decrease compared to the previous year. The most significant increase occurred in 2018 at 222.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Kenya in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Throughout 2017-2020, Tanzania maintained its position as the dominant source for Kenya's maize flour and cereals imports in value terms, accounting for 86.8% of total flows, while other countries contributed relatively small shares.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Kenya in value, 2017-2020