Wheat and meslin flour and cereals market in South Africa

Earlier Report Observations

South Africa's wheat and meslin flour market volume increased steadily from 2 633 thousand tonnes in 2018 to 2 788 thousand tonnes in 2023. The initial growth was supported by the recovery from the severe 2017/2018 drought, which improved winter cereal production prospects in key wheat-growing regions. This recovery continued into 2019, with economic factors like price competitiveness influencing planting decisions. Despite global supply constraints and sharp rises in input costs from 2021 onward due to the Ukraine war and droughts, physical consumption remained resilient, dipping only slightly in 2022 when moderate rainfall deficits in the Western Cape curbed yields.

The market value in dollar terms rose sharply from $1 108 million in 2018 to a peak of $1 700 million in 2022, before easing to $1 594 million in 2023. This value trajectory was primarily driven by price movements. Global grain input costs increased by over 50% in 2021, lifting production expenses. In 2022, wheat prices spiked to 14-year highs following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, fueling food inflation for cereal-based products and drawing criticism from the Competition Commission over pricing. Although global wheat prices moderated in 2023, high tariffs on shipping, fuel, and fertilizers, combined with rand weakness, prevented a full pass-through to lower consumer prices, resulting in a lower total market value despite higher volume.

Regulatory developments shaped the market environment throughout the period. Draft regulations for mandatory food warning labels were published in 2023, with implementation targeted for 2025. Flour fortification with vitamins and minerals gained broader acceptance. Looking to the near term, South Africa's wheat production for the 2024/25 marketing year is forecast at about 2.1 million tonnes, supported by expanded grain storage capacity and a trend of millers operating closer to farms. Export volumes of wheat and meslin flour have risen notably, reflecting increased regional trade.

Production wheat and meslin flour and cereals in South Africa

In kind, 2018-2021, K t

Globally, South Africa ranked as the 29th largest producer of wheat and meslin flour and cereals from 2018 to 2021.

Top producers of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2018-2021

World map of production of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, 2018-2021

South Africa's production of wheat and meslin flour and cereals has grown for the third year in a row. In 2021, the country produced 2 754 K t, which was nearly identical to the 2020 output. Over the 2018-2021 period, production rose by 3.3%, translating to an average annual growth rate of 1.1%.

Annual dynamics of production in South Africa in kind, 2018-2021, K t

In value, 2018-2021, M $ US

South Africa's production value for wheat and meslin flour and cereals has increased for the third consecutive year. In 2021, the output was valued at 1 546 M $ US, marking a 14.4% rise compared to the previous year. From 2018 to 2021, production value surged by 37.9%, with an annualized growth rate of 11.3%.

Annual dynamics of production in South Africa in value, 2018-2021, M $ US

Exports wheat and meslin flour and cereals from South Africa

Exports in kind, t

In 2021, South Africa exported 64 780 t of wheat and meslin flour and cereals, a 17.2% decrease from 2020. The lowest export volume was in 2019 at 46 217 t, while the highest was in 2020 at 78 237 t. Exports saw their largest drop in 2019, falling by 28.8%, and their biggest jump in 2020, increasing by 69.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from South Africa in kind, 2018-2021, t

From 2018 to 2021, the main buyers of South Africa's wheat and meslin flour and cereals in volume terms were Lesotho (44.8% of exports), Zimbabwe (32.5%), and Zambia (12.2%). Together, these three countries accounted for 89.4% of total exports.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from South Africa in kind, 2018-2021

Exports in value, K $ US

The data shows irregular fluctuations, pointing to a volatile market. South Africa's exports of wheat and meslin flour and cereals were valued at 36 378 K $ US in 2021, down 5.8% from the previous year. The lowest value was in 2019 at 22 488 K $ US, and the highest in 2020 at 38 606 K $ US. Exports experienced their steepest decline in 2019, dropping by 17.7%, and their largest increase in 2020, rising by 71.7%. Import levels varied 1.7-fold between the 2019 low and the 2020 high.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from South Africa in value, 2018-2021, K $ US

Between 2018 and 2021, Lesotho and Zimbabwe were the key destinations for South Africa's wheat and meslin flour and cereals exports in value terms, together making up 81.6% of total flows. Other partners individually accounted for much smaller shares.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's exports from South Africa in value, 2018-2021

Imports wheat and meslin flour and cereals to South Africa

Imports in kind, t

South Africa's imports of wheat and meslin flour and cereals have fallen for the second year in a row. In 2021, the country imported 45 797 t, a sharp 19.2% decrease from 2020. Over the 2018-2021 period, imports grew by 9.7%, with an average annual rate of 3.1%. The highest import volume was in 2019 at 45 797 t, which also saw the largest increase of 43.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to South Africa in kind, 2018-2021, t

During 2018-2021, Lesotho dominated South Africa's imports of wheat and meslin flour and cereals in volume terms, holding an 82.2% share. Other markets contributed much smaller portions.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to South Africa in kind, 2018-2021

Imports in value, K $ US

After two years of growth, South Africa's import value for wheat and meslin flour and cereals declined. In 2021, imports were approximately 19 616 K $ US, a 3.5% drop year-over-year. From 2018 to 2021, import value increased by 36.6%, averaging 11.0% per year. The peak was in 2020 at 20 330 K $ US, while the largest rise occurred in 2019 at 41.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to South Africa in value, 2018-2021, K $ US

From 2018 to 2021, Lesotho was the primary source for South Africa's imports of wheat and meslin flour and cereals in value terms, accounting for 74.4% of total flows. Other markets formed a long tail of minor partners.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2018-2021

World map of product's imports to South Africa in value, 2018-2021