Unroasted, not decaffeinated coffee market in Eastern Africa

Earlier Report Observations

The market volume for unroasted, not decaffeinated coffee in Eastern Africa contracted from 611 thousand tons in 2018 to 371 thousand tons in 2021. This decline was pronounced in 2019 when the implementation of Coffee Regulations 2019 enhanced market credibility and triggered a surge in export volumes, redirecting production away from domestic consumption despite rising output.

Market volume recovered to 501 thousand tons in 2022 before easing to 484 thousand tons in 2023. During this period, new government regulations improved the auction system's transparency, while adverse weather in other major producing countries tightened global supply and supported prices. The local consumption landscape expanded, with coffee shops multiplying from 231 in 2019 to 791 by 2024. By 2024, widespread adverse climatic conditions drove coffee prices to multi-year highs and anticipated production declines pointed towards a tighter market.

Production unroasted, not decaffeinated coffee in Eastern Africa

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of unroasted, not decaffeinated coffee, 2017-2020

World map of production of unroasted, not decaffeinated coffee, 2017-2020

Eastern Africa's production of unroasted, non-decaffeinated coffee has grown for the third year in a row. In 2020, the region produced 1 133 thousand tons, showing little change from 2019. Looking at the period from 2017 to 2020, production rose by 6.4%, which translates to an average annual growth rate of 2.1%.

Annual dynamics of production in Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Eastern Africa's production value for unroasted, non-decaffeinated coffee has increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, the output was valued at 2 855 million US dollars, up 4.0% from 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, however, production value fell by 11%, with a compound annual growth rate of -3.8%. The lowest value was recorded in 2018 at 2 700 million US dollars, which also saw the sharpest decline of 15.9%.

Annual dynamics of production in Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports unroasted, not decaffeinated coffee from Eastern Africa

Exports in kind, K t

Export volumes of unroasted, non-decaffeinated coffee from Eastern Africa have risen for the second year in a row. In 2020, exports reached 705.8 thousand tons, a slight increase of 0.6% compared to 2019. From 2017 to 2020, exports grew by 17.2%, averaging 5.4% per year. The lowest volume was in 2018 at 464.8 thousand tons, which also experienced the largest drop of 22.8%. In contrast, 2019 saw the biggest jump with a 51.0% increase.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Between 2017 and 2020, Germany, Italy, and Sudan were key buyers of unroasted, non-decaffeinated coffee from Eastern Africa, accounting for 15.5%, 12.8%, and 8.7% of export volumes, respectively. Together, they made up just 36.9% of total exports, highlighting a well-diversified partner base.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Cross-border shipments of unroasted, non-decaffeinated coffee from Eastern Africa have increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, export value totaled 1 780 million US dollars, marking a 4.4% year-over-year rise. The lowest value was recorded in 2018 at 1 169 million US dollars, which also saw the steepest decline of 35.6%. The largest increase occurred in 2019 with a 45.8% jump.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, the export market in value terms was highly diversified. Germany, the United States, and Italy were the top partners, contributing 14.2%, 11.8%, and 9.3% of total export value, respectively. Combined, they accounted for only 35.3% of flows, while the remaining 64.7% went to numerous other countries.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020

Imports unroasted, not decaffeinated coffee to Eastern Africa

Imports in kind, K t

Import volumes of unroasted, non-decaffeinated coffee into Eastern Africa show irregular changes, reflecting a volatile market. In 2020, imports totaled 8.5 thousand tons, a significant 90.0% increase from the previous year. The lowest volume was in 2018 at 2.5 thousand tons, which also saw the largest decline of 9.1%. Overall, imports peaked in 2020 and bottomed in 2018, with a 3.4-fold difference between these years.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, the Democratic Republic of the Congo was the main and most stable source for imports in volume terms, accounting for 4.0% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Import values of unroasted, non-decaffeinated coffee into Eastern Africa experienced noticeable fluctuations during the period. In 2020, imports amounted to 24 million US dollars, a sharp increase of 43.8% from the prior year. The largest decline was recorded in 2019 at 7.9%, while the biggest rise occurred in 2018 with a 107.6% jump. Values peaked in 2020 and hit their lowest point in 2017, with a 2.8-fold difference between these years.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Over the 2017-2020 period, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, South Africa, and the United Arab Emirates were the primary suppliers of unroasted, non-decaffeinated coffee to Eastern Africa in value terms. They accounted for 6.8%, 1.3%, and 0.9% of total imports, respectively, jointly making up 9.0% of the total.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Eastern Africa in value, 2017-2020