Unmanufactured tobacco and refuse market in Middle Africa, 2026

Earlier Report Observations

The market for unmanufactured tobacco in Middle Africa began at 13 641 tons in 2018. It declined to 12 771 tons in 2019, a year when a study revealed that illicit trade and smuggling caused the loss of about 40% of tobacco tax revenues, undermining the legal market. In 2020, the market volume grew to 14 612 tons, supported by widespread illicit trade which stabilized retail prices and maintained consumption, even as health authorities ordered the withdrawal of the 'Shikata' tobacco brand due to health concerns.

The market dropped to 13 408 tons in 2021 following the health ministry's appeal to quit smoking to avoid severe COVID-19 cases. Further contraction to 10 696 tons occurred in 2022 amid regulatory uncertainty from a new order on classified installations and disputes over the implementation of the excise code. By 2023, the market rebounded to 13 883 tons, while the WHO called for stronger tobacco control. In 2024, new anti-tobacco measures were promulgated, including an advertising ban and increased taxation, continuing the regulatory tightening trend.

Production unmanufactured tobacco and refuse in Middle Africa

In kind, 2017-2020, t

Top producers of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse, 2017-2020

World map of production of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse, 2017-2020

In 2019, Middle Africa produced 13 869 tonnes of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse, marking the lowest output in recent years. Production then saw minimal change in 2020, reaching 13 899 tonnes. The highest production level was recorded in 2018 at 14 152 tonnes. The most significant decline occurred in 2019 with a 2.0% drop, while the largest increase was in 2018 at 0.4%.

Annual dynamics of production in Middle Africa in kind, 2017-2020, t

In value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Unmanufactured tobacco and refuse production in Middle Africa has grown for three consecutive years. In 2020, output was valued at 27 267 thousand US dollars, reflecting a moderate 7.7% increase from the previous year. From 2017 to 2020, production rose by 12.9%, with an average annual growth rate of 4.1%.

Annual dynamics of production in Middle Africa in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Exports unmanufactured tobacco and refuse from Middle Africa

Exports in kind, t

Following two years of growth, Middle Africa's export volume of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse declined in 2020. The export volume stood at 3 395 tonnes, down 8.9% from the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, exports increased by 46.9%, equivalent to an annualized rate of 13.7%. The peak was in 2019 at 3 728 tonnes, with the largest increase occurring in 2018 at 30.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Middle Africa in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Uganda and the United States Minor Outlying Islands were the dominant markets for exports in kind, jointly accounting for 85.9% of total flows, while other countries made up the remaining share.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Middle Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

After two years of improvement, the value of exported unmanufactured tobacco and refuse from Middle Africa declined in 2020. Exports were valued at 6 660 thousand US dollars, indicating a 2.1% decrease year-over-year. Between 2017 and 2020, exports grew by 68.3%, equating to an annualized rate of 19.0%. The highest value was recorded in 2019 at 6 804 thousand US dollars, with the largest increase in 2018 at 35.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Middle Africa in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Throughout 2017 to 2020, Uganda (49.4% of exports in value terms), the United States Minor Outlying Islands (17.8%), and Nicaragua (13.5%) remained the primary markets for exports in value terms of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse from Middle Africa, collectively representing 80.7% of total flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Middle Africa in value, 2017-2020

Imports unmanufactured tobacco and refuse to Middle Africa

Imports in kind, t

Unmanufactured tobacco and refuse imports into Middle Africa increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, imports totaled 4 108 tonnes, up 56.2% from the previous year. Over the period 2017 to 2020, imports rose by 55.6%, with an average annual growth rate of 15.9%. The lowest import volume was in 2018 at 2 511 tonnes, with the largest decline occurring that year at 4.9%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Middle Africa in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Kenya (28.0% of imports in kind), Europe, not elsewhere specified (19.4%), and Brazil (6.5%) together accounted for 53.9% of total imports in kind, serving as the main sources for unmanufactured tobacco and refuse to Middle Africa.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Middle Africa in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

The market exhibited volatility during these years. In 2019, Middle Africa's import value of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse reached its lowest point at 4 312 thousand US dollars, with a decline of 28.3% that year. By 2020, imports surged to 9 109 thousand US dollars, showing a sharp rise of 111.2% from 2019. The difference between these years was 2.1-fold.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Middle Africa in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Throughout 2017 to 2020, Kenya (45.5% of imports in value terms), Europe, not elsewhere specified (8.4%), and South Africa (7.9%) remained the key markets for imports in value terms of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse to Middle Africa, jointly representing 61.8% of total flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Middle Africa in value, 2017-2020