Unmanufactured tobacco and refuse market in CIS

Earlier Report Observations

The market for unmanufactured tobacco in the CIS saw a brief increase in 2019, supported by higher import volumes. However, a multi-year decline began in 2020, driven by the rollout of a mandatory digital labeling system designed to curb illicit trade, which reduced the amount of non-compliant product in the supply chain, alongside a continuing decrease in the prevalence of traditional cigarette smoking.

The market contraction deepened considerably in 2022, primarily due to geopolitical sanctions that severely constrained import flows. This supply shock coincided with a sustained shift in consumer demand away from traditional tobacco products toward alternatives like e-cigarettes and heated tobacco systems, which use tobacco differently or in smaller quantities.

The downward trend continued through 2023 and into 2024, shaped by further regulatory hardening. Key measures included the introduction of mandatory licensing for production and import operations and successive increases in excise taxes, which consolidated the legal market while total consumption of raw tobacco leaf kept falling.

Production unmanufactured tobacco and refuse in CIS

In kind, 2017-2020, t

Top producers of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse, 2017-2020

World map of production of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse, 2017-2020

In 2019, unmanufactured tobacco and refuse production in the CIS saw its largest decline of 6.1%. However, output rebounded in 2018, reaching a peak of 16,998 tonnes with a 7.5% increase. By 2020, production remained relatively stable at 16,003 tonnes, showing little change from the previous year.

Annual dynamics of production in CIS in kind, 2017-2020, t

In value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Following a two-year downturn, unmanufactured tobacco and refuse production in the CIS began to recover. In 2019, output hit its lowest point at $76,051,000, but by 2020 it had risen slightly to $77,565,000, marking a 2.0% gain. The most significant drop occurred in 2018 with a 9.5% decline. Overall, from 2017 to 2020, production decreased by 8.7%, averaging an annual decline of 3.0%.

Annual dynamics of production in CIS in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Exports unmanufactured tobacco and refuse from CIS

Exports in kind, K t

CIS exports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse have grown for three consecutive years. In 2020, shipments reached 11.4 thousand tonnes, up 0.6% from 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports increased by 13.4%, with an average annual growth rate of 4.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from CIS in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Between 2017 and 2020, the export structure for unmanufactured tobacco and refuse from the CIS remained highly fragmented. China accounted for 9.1% of exports by volume, Ukraine for 5.6%, and Malaysia for 2.5%. Together, these three countries represented just 17.1% of total flows, with no single partner holding a dominant share.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from CIS in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

For the second year in a row, CIS exports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse increased in value terms. In 2020, exports totaled $55.4 million, a modest 2.3% rise from the previous year. The lowest point was in 2018 at $50.8 million, which saw a 6.0% decline, but this was followed by a 6.5% increase in 2019. Overall, from 2017 to 2020, exports grew by 2.3%, with an average annual rate of 0.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from CIS in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, China was the largest buyer of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse from the CIS in value terms, accounting for 19.7% of exports. Ukraine followed with 4.8%, and Germany with 1.7%. Together, these three countries made up 26.2% of total export value, but against a backdrop of numerous smaller partners, no single market dominated.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from CIS in value, 2017-2020

Imports unmanufactured tobacco and refuse to CIS

Imports in kind, K t

After two years of growth, CIS imports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse declined in volume. In 2019, imports peaked at 192.9 thousand tonnes with a 5.9% increase, but by 2020 they had fallen to 179.1 thousand tonnes, a 7.2% drop. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports still increased by 2.6%, averaging 0.8% growth per year.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to CIS in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Between 2017 and 2020, no single country dominated CIS imports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse by volume. Brazil led with 24.7% of imports, followed by India at 11.7% and Malawi at 9.3%. Combined, these three suppliers accounted for 45.7% of total imports, while many other partners held smaller, individual shares.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to CIS in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

In 2020, CIS imports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse decreased to $763.8 million, down 5.5% from 2019. The previous year, 2019, had seen a 1.7% increase. Overall, from 2017 to 2020, imports fell by 6.4%, equivalent to an average annual decline of 2.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to CIS in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Brazil was the top supplier of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse to the CIS in value terms, representing 23.9% of imports. India contributed 11.6%, and Malawi 9.1%. Together, these three countries formed the largest group, but their combined share was limited to 44.6% of total import value, indicating a diversified supplier base.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to CIS in value, 2017-2020