Unmanufactured tobacco and refuse market in Nigeria

Earlier Report Observations

The Nigerian unmanufactured tobacco market began the period under the framework of the National Tobacco Control Act, domesticated from the WHO FCTC, though its implementing regulations were not yet in force. This regulatory gap, coupled with reported widespread non-compliance and persistent illicit trade, coincided with a sharp market expansion in 2019. The volume surged by over 37% to 33 659 t, propelled by a near 50% increase in imports, as enforcement remained a challenge.

Market volume stabilized around 33 000 t in 2020 before contracting to 25 795 t in 2021. While specific explanatory factors for these annual movements are not highlighted in the sources, the market then rebounded dramatically to a peak of 40 945 t in 2022, marking the highest level in the period.

By 2023, the government accelerated its tobacco control reforms, launching a strategic action plan and focusing enforcement efforts against illicit trade. This intensification of regulatory measures coincided with a 28% contraction in the total market volume to 29 357 t, as imports fell by a third, reflecting a shift in market conditions.

Production unmanufactured tobacco and refuse in Nigeria

In kind, 2017-2020, t

Top producers of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse, 2017-2020

World map of production of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse, 2017-2020

In 2020, Nigeria produced 5 544 tonnes of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse, representing a slight decline of 2.2% compared to 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, production decreased by 7.6%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -2.6%. The lowest production level was recorded in 2018 at 5 500 tonnes. The most significant drop occurred in 2018 with an 8.3% decrease, while the largest increase was observed in 2019 with a 3.0% rise.

Annual dynamics of production in Nigeria in kind, 2017-2020, t

Exports unmanufactured tobacco and refuse from Nigeria

Exports in kind, t

In 2020, Nigeria's cross-border shipments of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse reached 132 tonnes, reflecting a substantial decline of 10.4% compared to the previous year.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Nigeria in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Niger played a dominant role in Nigeria's exports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse in kind, accounting for 76.8% of total flows, with the remainder distributed among other trading partners.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Nigeria in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

In 2020, Nigeria's foreign supplies of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse totaled 0.2 million US dollars, down by 64.1% from the previous year.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Nigeria in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Throughout the 2017-2020 period, the country structure of Nigeria's exports in value terms was primarily shaped by Niger and Burkina Faso, which together accounted for 86.6% of total flows, while other markets formed a long tail.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Nigeria in value, 2017-2020

Imports unmanufactured tobacco and refuse to Nigeria

Imports in kind, t

In 2020, Nigeria's imports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse volumes came to 27 652 tonnes, down by 1.7% compared with 2019. The lowest import level was recorded in 2018 at 18 990 tonnes, while the highest was in 2019 at 28 140 tonnes. The most significant decline occurred in 2018 with a 30.4% drop, and the largest increase was in 2019 with a 48.2% rise.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Nigeria in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, three main markets—Brazil, India, and Germany—together absorbed 75.4% of Nigeria's total imports in kind of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Nigeria in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Nigeria's imports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse from abroad increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, imports reached 136.5 million US dollars, marking a significant advance of 12.3% versus the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports increased by 13.9%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.4%. The lowest value was recorded in 2018 at 96.7 million US dollars. The largest decline occurred in 2018 with a 19.3% decrease, while the largest increase was in 2019 with a 25.6% rise.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Nigeria in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Brazil (39.2% of imports in value terms), India (22.0%), and Germany (21.8%) continued to be the main suppliers of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse to Nigeria, jointly forming 83.0% of total imports in value terms.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Nigeria in value, 2017-2020