Unmanufactured tobacco and refuse market in ASEAN

Earlier Report Observations

The ASEAN market for unmanufactured tobacco and refuse saw its volume grow from 620 thousand metric tons in 2018 to 710 thousand metric tons in 2023, a period marked by significant swings. Initial expansion through 2019 coincided with a 56% surge in global exports and the rising commercial presence of next-generation tobacco products, which broadened trade flows and consumer options. This growth was interrupted in 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted supply chains and led to widespread public smoking bans, causing market volume to contract for two consecutive years.

Market recovery began in 2022, aligning with a global peak in tobacco trade and intensified new product launches from major industry players. The most pronounced growth arrived in 2023, with volume jumping 16%, driven by targeted marketing strategies for brand loyalty and the wider availability of hybrid product formulations. Throughout this recovery, regulatory changes, including stricter labeling and packaging rules enacted in several countries, continued to shape market access and operations.

Underlying these trends, state-owned enterprises like China National Tobacco Corporation maintained a dominant influence on global supply, affecting availability and prices. Additionally, increasing climate variability and extreme weather events introduced volatility, periodically impacting tobacco crop yields and the consistency of production volumes entering the ASEAN trade network.

Production unmanufactured tobacco and refuse in ASEAN

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse, 2017-2020

World map of production of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse, 2017-2020

ASEAN's production of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse saw a decline after two years of growth. In 2020, the region produced 486.3 K t, marking a slight year-over-year decrease of 0.8%. Over the 2017-2020 period, production increased by 18%, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.7%. The peak was reached in 2019 at 490.5 K t, which also saw the largest annual increase of 11.7%.

Annual dynamics of production in ASEAN in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports unmanufactured tobacco and refuse from ASEAN

Exports in kind, K t

ASEAN's exports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse declined for the third consecutive year. In 2020, export volume reached 72.6 K t, remaining nearly unchanged from 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, exports decreased by 37.8%, equating to an annualized decline of 14.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from ASEAN in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, ASEAN's exports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse were distributed across a broad range of buyers. The Dominican Republic accounted for 9.1% of exports in kind, the United States for 7.9%, and Belgium for 6.7%, together contributing 23.8% of total exports. Many other countries held smaller but significant shares.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from ASEAN in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

ASEAN's export value of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse declined after two years of increase. In 2020, exports amounted to 441 M $ US, showing a limited decrease of 8.9% compared to 2019. The highest value was recorded in 2019 at 484 M $ US, while the largest increase occurred in 2018 at 10.2%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from ASEAN in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, ASEAN's export value of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse was spread across a diverse portfolio of buyers. Belgium contributed 9.7% of exports in value terms, the Dominican Republic 8.7%, and Germany 6.0%, together making up 24.4% of total exports. Numerous other countries held smaller but notable shares.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from ASEAN in value, 2017-2020

Imports unmanufactured tobacco and refuse to ASEAN

Imports in kind, K t

ASEAN's imports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse declined for the second consecutive year. In 2020, import volume totaled 225.4 K t, which is 6.3% lower year-over-year. Between 2017 and 2020, imports decreased by 11.5%, with an annualized rate of 4.0%. The peak was in 2018 at 267.5 K t, with the largest decline of 10.1% in 2019 and the largest increase of 5.1% in 2018.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to ASEAN in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, China, Brazil, and India were the key sources for ASEAN's imports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse in kind. China accounted for 30.6% of imports, Brazil for 18.1%, and India for 7.2%, together representing 55.9% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to ASEAN in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

ASEAN's import value of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse declined for the second year in a row. In 2020, imports were approximately 1 128 M $ US, down by 5.0% compared to 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, imports decreased by 11.3%, with an annualized rate of 3.9%. The highest value was in 2018 at 1 340 M $ US, with the largest decline of 11.4% in 2019 and the largest increase of 5.4% in 2018.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to ASEAN in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Over the 2017-2020 period, China, Brazil, and the United States were the top contributors to ASEAN's import value of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse. China accounted for 26.0% of imports in value terms, Brazil for 20.2%, and the United States for 7.6%, jointly making up 53.9% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to ASEAN in value, 2017-2020