Unmanufactured tobacco and refuse market in Europe

Earlier Report Observations

The market for unmanufactured tobacco and refuse in Europe began a sustained decline from 775 thousand tonnes in 2018, driven by a series of tax increases designed to curb consumption. The 30% excise hike in 2018 was followed by an additional carbon tax on tobacco in 2019, raising retail prices. This downward trend was partially interrupted in 2020 when COVID-19 lockdowns temporarily closed tobacco shops, cutting deliveries of rolling tobacco and cigarettes by 13%, though demand for pipe and snuff tobacco shifted to online sales.

A further 4% excise increase in January 2021 raised the average pack price by €0.50, leading to an additional 4% drop in sales volume. The pressure continued in 2022 with the implementation of the 'Plan France', which immediately added €0.30 to a cigarette pack as part of a planned 15% tax rise by 2025. During this period, the official launch of Philip Morris International's IQOS heated tobacco device in France created a new product segment, which captured 6% of the market by 2022 and signaled a diversification in consumer choice.

By 2023, the share of non-manufactured tobacco like press tobacco and snuff had doubled to 6% of total volume. Regulatory evolution continued with the introduction of extended producer responsibility for cigarette filters containing plastic in 2023. In January 2024, another tax increase of €0.80 per pack accelerated the shift of smokers towards heated tobacco and e-cigarettes, while nicotine pouches emerged as a new segment benefiting from a temporary tax exemption.

Production unmanufactured tobacco and refuse in Europe

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse, 2017-2020

World map of production of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse, 2017-2020

Europe's production of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse has declined for the third year in a row. In 2020, the region produced 167.6 thousand tons, marking an 11.0% decrease from the previous year. Looking at the period from 2017 to 2020, production fell by 28.4%, which translates to an average annual decline of 10.5%.

Annual dynamics of production in Europe in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Europe's production of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse has dropped for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the output was valued at 997 million US dollars, showing a modest decline of 9.1% compared to 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, production decreased by 28%, with an average annual rate of 10.4%.

Annual dynamics of production in Europe in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports unmanufactured tobacco and refuse from Europe

Exports in kind, K t

Exports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse from Europe have fallen for the third year running. In 2020, exports totaled 267.4 thousand tons, down 8.5% from the previous year. Between 2017 and 2020, exports decreased by 26.1%, averaging an annual decline of 9.6%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Europe in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, exports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse from Europe were spread across many partner countries. The top three—the United States (2.8% of exports), Turkey (2.8%), and Switzerland (2.7%)—accounted for just 8.3% of total flows, highlighting the broad distribution.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Europe in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Export shipments of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse from Europe have declined for the third consecutive year. In 2020, exports were valued at 1 591 million US dollars, a 6.5% drop from 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports fell by 25.7%, with an average annual decrease of 9.4%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Europe in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, the partner portfolio for exports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse from Europe was quite diverse. Côte d'Ivoire (5.2% of exports), Switzerland (3.5%), and Turkey (3.3%) together made up only 12.0% of total flows, indicating a wide range of trading partners.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Europe in value, 2017-2020

Imports unmanufactured tobacco and refuse to Europe

Imports in kind, K t

In 2020, imports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse into Europe amounted to 801.4 thousand tons, showing little change from the previous year. Over the 2017-2020 period, imports decreased by 3%, with an average annual rate of 1.0%. The lowest point was in 2019 at 800.9 thousand tons, while the peak was in 2018 at 901.7 thousand tons. The largest decline occurred in 2019 at 11.2%, and the biggest increase was in 2018 at 9.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Europe in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, imports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse into Europe were widely distributed among partner countries. Brazil (19.5% of imports), Malawi (8.0%), and India (7.4%) together represented only 35.0% of total flows, showing a broad import base.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Europe in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

Europe's imports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse have declined for the second year in a row. In 2020, imports reached 3 954 million US dollars, a modest decrease of 6.4% from 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, imports fell by 10.9%, averaging an annual decline of 3.8%. The highest value was recorded in 2018 at 4 515 million US dollars. The largest drop was in 2019 at 6.4%, while the biggest increase was in 2018 at 1.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Europe in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Between 2017 and 2020, the partner landscape for imports of unmanufactured tobacco and refuse into Europe was extensive. Brazil (18.5% of imports), the United States (7.8%), and Malawi (7.2%) together accounted for just 33.6% of total flows, with the remaining 66.4% coming from numerous other countries.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Europe in value, 2017-2020