Oats market in Northern Europe

Earlier Report Observations

The oat market in Northern Europe saw substantial fluctuations from 2018 to 2023, beginning with a sharp rise in market volume from 2.6 million tons to 3.9 million tons by 2020. This initial growth was propelled by strong international demand for plant-based foods, particularly oat drinks, evidenced by Arla's launch of lactose-free milk and oat drink blends. Significant industry investments in processing capacity, including Lantmännen's acquisition of a large oat mill in Kimstad and Fazer's investments in Swedish and Finnish mills, helped bolster production despite severe drought conditions in 2018 that reduced oat cultivation area to a century low and forced increased imports.

After peaking in 2020, market volume contracted to 3.0 million tons in 2021, influenced by ongoing production constraints and global supply chain disruptions from the pandemic. A rebound to 3.7 million tons in 2022 was supported by the entry of new products like the GRYR oat drink made from Norwegian oats and collaborative efforts such as TINE's partnership with Norgesmøllene to secure quality oats from local farmers. However, market volume fell sharply to 2.5 million tons in 2023 as production challenges persisted, compounded by high grain prices driven by international market factors and regional cultivation declines, despite continued consumer interest in healthy and sustainable oat products.

Production oats in Northern Europe

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Top producers of oats, 2017-2020

World map of production of oats, 2017-2020

Northern Europe's oats production has increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, the region produced 4 654 K t of oats, marking a significant 13.0% rise compared to the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, production grew by 21.8%, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.8%. The lowest production level was recorded in 2018 at 3 055 K t, which also saw the largest decline of 20.1%. In contrast, 2019 experienced the largest increase, with production surging by 34.8%.

Annual dynamics of production in Northern Europe in kind, 2017-2020, K t

Exports oats from Northern Europe

Exports in kind, K t

After a two-year decline, oats exports from Northern Europe have rebounded. In 2020, the region exported 864.1 K t of oats, representing a substantial 63.5% increase from the previous year. From 2017 to 2020, exports rose by 13.8%, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.4%. The lowest export volume was recorded in 2019 at 528.6 K t, which also saw the largest decline of 19.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Northern Europe in kind, 2017-2020, K t

From 2017 to 2020, the three largest markets for oats exports from Northern Europe were Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium. Together, these countries accounted for 55.5% of total export flows during this period.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Northern Europe in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, M $ US

Cross-border shipments of oats from Northern Europe have increased for the second consecutive year. In 2020, exports were valued at 223.9 M $ US, reflecting a 10.8% year-over-year rise. Between 2017 and 2020, exports grew by 24.6%, equating to an annualized rate of 7.6%. The lowest value was recorded in 2018 at 177.6 M $ US, which saw a slight decline of 1.2%. In contrast, 2019 experienced the largest increase, with exports rising by 13.8%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports from Northern Europe in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

From 2017 to 2020, Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands were the top buyers of oats from Northern Europe in value terms. Germany accounted for 36.4% of exports, Belgium for 10.0%, and the Netherlands for 9.9%. Combined, these three markets represented 56.4% of total export value during this period.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports from Northern Europe in value, 2017-2020

Imports oats to Northern Europe

Imports in kind, K t

Oats imports into Northern Europe showed noticeable fluctuations from 2017 to 2020. The lowest point was in 2017, while imports peaked in 2019, with a 2.2-fold difference between these years. In 2020, imports stood at 103.1 K t, indicating a steep 42.9% decrease compared to 2019. The highest import volume was recorded in 2019 at 180.5 K t, and the largest increase occurred in 2018, with imports surging by 93.7%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Northern Europe in kind, 2017-2020, K t

During 2017–2020, oats imports into Northern Europe were distributed across a wide range of markets. Russia, Germany, and Poland were the top sources, accounting for 6.6%, 2.6%, and 2.5% of imports in kind, respectively. Together, these three countries represented only 11.7% of total import flows.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Northern Europe in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, M $ US

After a two-year increase, cross-border shipments of oats into Northern Europe declined. In 2020, imports were recorded at 47.7 M $ US, reflecting an abrupt 36.3% decrease compared to the previous year. Over the period from 2017 to 2020, imports decreased by 5.4%, with a compound annual growth rate of -1.8%. The highest value was recorded in 2019 at 74.9 M $ US, and the largest increase occurred in 2018, with imports rising by 35.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports to Northern Europe in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

An analysis of imports in value terms from 2017 to 2020 reveals a broad distribution across many markets. Russia, Germany, and Spain were the leading sources, accounting for 4.7%, 4.2%, and 2.3% of imports in value, respectively. Together, these three countries represented only 11.2% of total flows, with the remaining 88.8% coming from other partners.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports to Northern Europe in value, 2017-2020