Milk market Ukraine

Earlier Report Observations

The Ukrainian milk market began a downward trend in 2018, with volume falling to 9.6 million tons that year. This was influenced by several factors, including Russia's trade embargo and the abolition of EU milk production quotas, which affected export opportunities and increased competition. Domestically, the dairy sector faced profitability issues, low average selling prices, and an aging rural population, all constraining herd development. Additionally, new technical regulations that redefined milk grades aimed to improve quality but may have pressured some producers. In 2019, economic challenges and the diversion of resources to support the military further threatened consumer demand, contributing to a continued decline in market volume.

The contraction persisted through 2020 and 2021, with market volume dropping to 8.7 million tons by 2021. While specific yearly factors were not highlighted, the cumulative effect of earlier pressures remained. In 2022, global feed price trends, notably increased corn exports from Brazil, raised the cost of milk production in Ukraine. Higher input costs squeezed margins, likely discouraging production and accelerating the market's decline to 7.7 million tons.

By 2023, the market volume fell further to 7.4 million tons, with its value plummeting to $11.2 billion. A key driver was the sharp rise in energy and logistics costs within Ukraine, which significantly increased the cost of dairy processing and distribution. Looking ahead to 2024, worldwide increases in milk production costs, observed in major producing nations, are exerting additional upward pressure on expenses, continuing to challenge the Ukrainian milk market's stability.

Production milk Ukraine

In kind, 2017-2020, K t

Between 2017 and 2020, Ukraine ranked as the 17th largest milk producer globally.

Top producers of milk, 2017-2020

World map of production of milk, 2017-2020

Ukraine's milk production declined for the third consecutive year. In 2020, the country produced 9 264 thousand tonnes of milk, representing a 4.1% decrease compared to 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, production fell by 11.9%, with an average annual decline rate of 4.2%.

Annual dynamics of production Ukraine in kind, 2017-2020, K t

In value, 2017-2020, M $ US

In 2020, Ukraine's milk output was valued at 13 582 million US dollars, showing a modest decrease of 6.3% from the previous year. From 2017 to 2020, production value dropped by 13%, with an average annual decline of 4.5%. The lowest value was recorded in 2018 at 13 186 million US dollars. The largest decline occurred in 2018 with a 15.5% drop, while the largest increase was in 2019 with a 9.9% rise.

Annual dynamics of production Ukraine in value, 2017-2020, M $ US

Exports milk to Ukraine

Exports in kind, t

Ukraine exported 46 123 tonnes of milk in 2020, marking a significant decrease of 24.4% compared to 2019. Over the 2017-2020 period, exports fell by 24.3%, with an average annual decline of 8.9%. The highest export volume was recorded in 2019 at 61 011 tonnes, which also saw the largest increase of 8.3%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports to Ukraine in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Ukraine's milk exports in kind were widely distributed across partner countries. Moldova accounted for 18.0% of exports, Georgia for 11.3%, and Bangladesh for 7.3%. Together, these three countries represented only 36.7% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports to Ukraine in kind, 2017-2020

Exports in value, K $ US

In 2020, Ukraine's cross-border milk shipments reached 67 625 thousand US dollars, down by 26.1% from 2019. Between 2017 and 2020, export value decreased by 25.1%, equating to an average annual decline of 9.2%. The peak value was recorded in 2019 at 91 516 thousand US dollars, which also experienced the largest increase of 24.0%.

Annual dynamics of product's exports to Ukraine in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

During 2017-2020, Ukraine's milk exports in value terms were relatively evenly spread. Georgia accounted for 10.4% of export value, Moldova for 10.1%, and Bangladesh for 8.8%. Collectively, these three countries represented just 29.2% of total export flows.

Structure of product's exports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's exports to Ukraine in value, 2017-2020

Imports milk in Ukraine

Imports in kind, t

Ukraine's milk imports increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, imports reached 19 239 tonnes, showing a substantial year-over-year increase of 212.4%. Between 2017 and 2020, import volume surged by 658.6%, with an average annual growth rate of 96.5%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports in Ukraine in kind, 2017-2020, t

From 2017 to 2020, Poland, Belarus, and Germany were the main suppliers of milk to Ukraine in kind. Poland accounted for 43.7% of imports, Belarus for 30.5%, and Germany for 13.1%. Together, these three countries comprised 87.3% of total imports in kind.

Structure of product's imports in kind by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports in Ukraine in kind, 2017-2020

Imports in value, K $ US

Ukraine's milk imports increased for the third consecutive year. In 2020, import value amounted to 25 661 thousand US dollars, reflecting a sharp year-over-year rise of 174.5%. Between 2017 and 2020, import value grew by 392.2%, with an average annual increase of 70.1%.

Annual dynamics of product's imports in Ukraine in value, 2017-2020, K $ US

Over the 2017-2020 period, Belarus, Poland, and Germany were the primary sources of milk imports to Ukraine in value terms. Belarus accounted for 34.5% of import value, Poland for 23.0%, and Germany for 21.4%. Collectively, these three countries absorbed 78.9% of total import value.

Structure of product's imports in value by countries, 2017-2020

World map of product's imports in Ukraine in value, 2017-2020